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The controversial move by former US President Donald Trump, while in office, to recognize Morocco’s disputed claim on Western Sahara has left a diplomatic headache for President Joe Biden (Photo: EPA-EFE / AL DRAGO / POOL)
Trump’s last-minute decision to acknowledge Morocco’s claim to Western Sahara presents a dilemma for the new US president.
First published by ISS today
US President Joe Biden is expected to broadly restore US relations with Africa, which his predecessor, Donald Trump, reduced to a new low. Biden has already reversed a series of bad decisions by Trump around the world, from rejoining the Paris climate accord to ending construction of the Mexican border wall.
But one of Trump’s decisions, a farewell in December 2020, will not be so easy to correct. That was his controversial recognition of Morocco’s disputed claim to Western Sahara, in exchange for Morocco’s recognition of the state of Israel.
The hapless Western Sahara was apparently just an expendable pawn in Trump’s broader policy of persuading Muslim states in the Middle East and North Africa to recognize Israel. He had already negotiated the recognition of Israel by the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan. The latest was also a quid pro quo agreement in which Trump agreed to remove Sudan from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism.
Morocco has denied the link between the United States’ recognition of its claim on Western Sahara and Rabat’s recognition of Israel. And he has strongly emphasized that he has not abandoned the cause of Palestinian independence. But the circumstantial evidence for a quid pro quo seems overwhelming.
Even in his own Republican Party, Trump’s move was heavily criticized. Senator Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma, a former advocate for the rights of the Saharawi people, called the decision “shocking and deeply disappointing.” Inhofe added that Trump could have reached an agreement between Morocco and Israel “without negotiating the rights of a people without a voice.”
John Bolton, a former US ambassador to the United Nations (UN) under President George W Bush and also a former Trump national security adviser before the spectacular fight, agreed. I KNOW tweeted: “Trump Wrong to Abandon 30 Years of US Policy on Western Sahara Just for Quick Foreign Policy Victory.”
It was certainly an abrupt U-turn in US policy toward Western Sahara. Recently, in October 2020, the United States had supported the re-election of the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).
From that conventional policy of accepting the right to self-determination of the Saharawi people, the outgoing Trump administration went on to recognize only their right to certain autonomy, the maximum that Morocco is now willing to grant. But if that twist was shocking, as Inhofe said, it doesn’t mean it will necessarily be that easy to reverse.
The Biden administration is taking its time on this, which suggests it is proving to be a difficult decision. When Inhofe asked Biden’s defense secretary Lloyd Austin about it during his Senate confirmation hearing on Jan. 19, Austin only said the issue warranted a “closer look” but did not compromise. The new secretary of state, Antony Blinken, completely sidestepped the issue in his first press conference this week.
The State Department responded uncommittedly to the same question of ISS today. “We welcome the new steps that Morocco is taking to improve relations with Israel. The Morocco-Israel relationship will have long-term benefits for both countries, ”said a spokesman.
“The United States will continue to support the UN process to implement a just and lasting solution to this longstanding dispute. We will also support the work of [MINURSO], to monitor the ceasefire and prevent violence in the area ”.
Judd Devermont, director of the Africa program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, believes that overall, the Biden administration will reestablish US relations with Africa. These have been damaged by four years of “negligent, petty, and China-obsessed politics” under Trump.
He notes that Biden has already begun to repair America’s image and restore the focus on democracy, human rights and governance. Examples in Africa include critical comments from the government on police brutality in Nigeria, the war in Tigray and Uganda’s “illegitimate elections.”
However, he believes that “Western Sahara represents an immediate headache for the new administration. While Morocco has persuaded many African countries to recognize its control over the area, the African Union (AU) counts Western Sahara as one of its 55 member states.
President Biden risks damaging his relationship with Rabat if he rescinds his predecessor’s decision, but he will face a significant setback with the AU. and other African governments if they accept Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. “
Yasmina Abouzzohour, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Doha Center, agrees and says the Biden administration risks alienating not only Morocco but Israel as well if it reverses Trump’s decision. “In the event of derecognition, the Moroccan regime may return to its partial normalization of ties with Israel, despite its economic interests,” he said. ISS today. “Given America’s security interests in Morocco and its close ties to both the kingdom and Israel, the administration is being understandably cautious.”
Abouzzohour contrasts the Biden administration’s hesitancy on Western Sahara with its swift and bold suspensions of Trump’s deals to sell arms to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two major US allies in the Middle East.
If Biden does not reverse Trump’s decision, this will undoubtedly damage the long and already desperate search for independence of the Polisario Front. It’s too early to quantify the impact, says Abouzzohour. But a US decision is unlikely to change the positions of the European Union (EU) or the UN on the dispute.
‘The UN will continue to pressure the Security Council resolutions, while the EU will try to achieve a balance between maintaining its strong ties with Morocco and supporting the UN peace process, ”he says.
Whatever Trump’s motives for his decision, he also, intentionally or not, left some booby traps for Biden. And this seems to be one of them. DM
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