Covid’s superspreader events like Rage have laid the foundation for the second wave



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By Karen Singh Article publication time 2h ago

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Durban – Epidemiologist and infectious disease specialist professor Salim Abdool Karim has criticized the super-spreading events, saying they have been the main cause of a spike in new Covid-19 infections in KwaZulu-Natal in the last week.

As of Sunday, South Africa recorded a cumulative total of 814,565 Covid-19 cases with 4,116 new cases since the previous daily report and 22,206 people have died.

In the past seven days, Gauteng recorded a total of 2,762 new cases, 3,508 in KZN, 7,807 in the Western Cape and 9,035 in the Eastern Cape.

Abdool Karim said that while it was still too early to determine if SA was in a second wave, he was concerned about the increase in infections in the province and, to a lesser extent, in Gauteng.

He noted that when the first wave started in South Africa it did not affect all provinces at the same time, but instead moved from one province to another.

“Given that the epidemic has been spreading in the Eastern and Western Cape for almost a month, these increases that we are seeing in KZN and Gauteng are quite concerning.”

The specialist said that the current numbers were laying the foundation for the second Covid-19 wave.

“We are now reaching a point where the numbers suggest that we are entering a path that will lead to a second wave.”

Abdool Karim described the week-long Ballito Rage, which ended on Friday, as the most recent super spreader event on KZN.

“That is a very clear case of a super spreader event when you have one event, 92 people who got infected.”

He said that based on the information he was given, there were more than 1,000 people attending the event, while regulations allow 250 people indoors and 500 outdoors.

“If the organizers are found to have broken the rules, in my opinion, they should be charged and everyone who has acquired the infection and is now in quarantine should consider suing them for loss of income.”

He said super broadcaster events become the basis for widespread community broadcasting.

“They provide the seed by which the virus enters many different communities all at once and then it is very difficult to control.”

Abdool Karim described a super spread event as the engine driving the spread of the virus.

He said that a small number of people go to these events, functions or work and spread it out to a large number of people.

“About 20% of infected people may be responsible for up to 80% of all infections.”

Abdool Karim encouraged the eThekwini municipality to implement methods to establish where events with more than 50 people were taking place.

“Anyone with a function of more than 50 people must register the function with the metro police.”

Mercury



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