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- Many countries are experiencing a second Covid wave, and scientists are concerned that South Africa is headed in the same direction.
- However, implementing another hard lock is not practical as the first one was not successful in containing the spread of the virus.
- Instead, the focus should be on responsible behavior by South Africans and avoiding meetings in poorly ventilated spaces.
Many countries that had initially controlled the spread of the Covid-19 infection are now struggling with a second wave, and the case may not be different for South Africa.
In fact, a second wave isn’t completely unexpected, said Wits University vaccination professor Shabir Madhi during a MyHealthLIVE webinar on Wednesday.
Nelson Mandela Bay, for example, is in the midst of a virus resurgence, Madhi said. Similarly, there are clear signs on the Garden Route one that is being done.
“A resurgence is not completely unexpected. All the countries that went through a first wave have essentially had a resurgence, ”he said.
The virus never went away
“The virus is deeply rooted in the country and is still circulating. There was a decline in the first wave in South Africa for two reasons: First, a high percentage (up to one third) of the adult population in major urban metropolitan areas was infected, ”Madhi explained, adding:
“With that, and adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI), such as the use of masks; physical distancing; and avoiding crowded spaces was enough to cause an interruption in the virus transmission chain ”.
The problem, however, is that once NPIs are removed from the equation, the percentage of the population that is infected is below the threshold required for there to be a sustained break in the chain of virus transmission, he said.
“So when we start to allow mass gatherings, like the Matric Rage Festival held at KZN last week, rest assured: we are going to have a resurgence.”
Madhi added that the increase in Covid cases is a clear indication that people have become complacent in implementing NPIs.
“When people start gathering during the holiday period, especially in poorly ventilated indoor areas, we will see more virus transmission begin to occur.”
We can expect to see a much more widespread resurgence beginning to take place across the country around February next year, unless the behavior of South African citizens becomes more conscious and we act sensibly on what is required of us to avoid a second wave, Madhi said. .
How can we avoid a second wave?
The most important factor in avoiding another massive escalation in Covid cases is simple: Avoid gathering in poorly ventilated indoor spaces, Madhi said.
“Walking on the beach without a mask, that’s not the problem. The problem is when families gather in groups of 10, 20, in a small space with little ventilation. If you are gathering as a family, do it outside.
“If you plan to go to a restaurant, insist on getting a table outside. He certainly shouldn’t go to pubs, shebeens and clubs, which are in tight, crowded spaces. ”
Understanding superprocessor events
Super spread events refer to many people who attended the same event and were infected almost immediately in a short period of time. These events are key factors in the increase in Covid cases, such as the Rage Festival, Madhi said.
“And the reason these super-spreading events are so dangerous is because information about the virus now shows that it is transmitted through the air and appears to be the main source of acquisition of the virus.
“This means that when an infected person coughs and exhales, they release their contaminated microscopic droplets. In poorly ventilated areas, those droplets can remain suspended in the air for up to two hours, and all it takes is for others in the vicinity to literally breathe in those contaminated particles and they can become infected.
“It is not about having a 10% or 100% occupancy; even with 50% occupancy in a restaurant, you can still get the same type of super spreader event, so ventilation is absolutely essential, ”said Madhi.
‘If you want to party, party outdoors’
“If you want to party, party outdoors. That will lead to a certain level of safety at least in preventing super diffuser events, ”Madhi said, emphasizing that maintaining physical distancing remains critical, especially over prolonged periods of time and with people with whom you don’t interact on a daily basis. , and as well as those who are symptomatic.
“Wearing a mask and then participating in a mass gathering in poorly ventilated areas is an example of irresponsible behavior,” Madhi said.
Border opening: does this make SA vulnerable to an increase in cases?
“Of course not,” Madhi said, saying that at this stage in the epidemic, opening the borders to international travelers would have a negligible effect on increasing the number of cases.
“We are not a country like South Korea or New Zealand that were successful in containing the spread of the virus and want to protect themselves against imported cases, which could result in outbreaks in those countries.
“In the South African context, as well as in European countries that are experiencing a resurgence, the number of infections that occur on a daily basis, regardless of whether it is due to international travel or not, is not really going to impact a resurgence. Madhi explained.
The hard lock failed to contain the spread of the virus
Madhi said South Africa is a good example of how unsuccessful a lockdown has been to contain the spread of the virus, saying that all it accomplished in the country, apart from wreaking havoc on our economy, was delaying the timing of the peak of the virus. virus.
“It provided an opportunity for our healthcare facilities to be better equipped to treat hospitalized cases and to prepare and purchase sufficient PPE. But beyond that, the blockade had no effect on the infection rate and a marginal effect on mortality. “
In fact, South Africa was one of the few countries where during Level 5, ongoing community transmission was still taking place.
“All that a lockdown does, in a South African context, is delay the inevitable, so that’s not the best strategy, especially now that the health system is reasonably prepared,” he said.
The only difference another hard lock is going to make is that we will likely experience a second wave in March or April, rather than February.
“It is not going to have a significant impact in terms of the number of people who will end up infected with the resurgence. It is a blunt tool and it is not adequate to meet the challenge of a resurgence, “said Madhi.
