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A medical expert is questioning the accuracy of South Africa’s Covid-19 statistics, stating that studies point to coronavirus-related deaths not being reported correctly.
According to Dr. Gilles van Cutsem of Doctors Without Borders, many people were dying from Covid-19 without being tested for the virus, casting doubt on the accuracy of the numbers provided daily by the health department.
Van Cutsem explained: “It is very difficult to estimate the exact number of cases and mortality, because only a fraction of the cases are reported. Accurate reporting of deaths can only be done after several days, as deaths are not always reported immediately.
“Work is underway to collect data from all serological surveys [blood serum tests done in a group of individuals to determine seroprevalence] important to give an estimate of the actual number of infected people. The World Health Organization has cited a global estimate of less than 10% of the world’s population.
“A recent serosurvey in the Western Cape found that 40% of the sampled population had been infected, estimating that this was at the upper limits of possible prevalence. The health minister has cited 20% as a credible estimate of people who have had Covid-19 in South Africa, which translates to a total of 12 million cases, compared to 696,000 reported. “
When asked if he agreed that the government did not report sufficient statistics, the health spokesman, Dr. Lwazi Manzi, said The citizen to a statement issued last week by the Minister of Health, Dr. Zweli Mkhize, who noted that there had been a “notable increase in the number of deaths recently which caused us concern as we have received reports from the Medical Research Council (MRC) that there have been no excess deaths for three weeks in a row ”.
“Therefore, we consulted the provinces to determine the reason for the increase in numbers.
“We have received reports that the provinces are implementing the MRC recommendations to reconcile data with home affairs death data. Additionally, provinces are auditing death data, either by extracting data from DATCOV surveillance reports. [a hospital monitoring system] and identifying unreported deaths, or auditing facilities on the ground.
“We welcome this robust refinement of data collection as it assures us that we are exercising precision in epidemiological surveillance going forward.”
Referring to the government’s extension of the national state of disaster for another month, Van Cutsem cited the “need to ethically and legally balance public health with civil liberties.” With some people not adhering to health protocols, he warned that “a second wave” was “definitely a possibility if people decline prevention measures.”
“During the summer holidays in Europe, we saw the reopening of nightclubs and bars, which saw a multiple congregation of people, super broadcasters events that facilitated a second wave of community broadcasting,” he said.
Dr. Jantjie Taljaard, an infectious disease specialist at Tygerberg Hospital and an academic at Stellenbosch University, who has been on the coal side of this pandemic, said the government’s state of spread of the disaster was “understandable, because it’s difficult predict what will happen in the next month or two. “
In the absence of a vaccine, Taljaard said that an increase in the number of infected people was “inevitable” in South Africa. “If the government had stopped the state of disaster now, reestablishing it a month or two later would be very disturbing.”
While a second wave of infections was possible, Dr. Jeremy Nel, an infectious disease specialist at Wits University, said: “The second wave is unlikely to be as big as the first wave. The limited data that South Africans have suggests that a large proportion of South Africans have already been infected. In the Western Cape, the proportion of people who came to clinics with evidence of infection was approximately 40%. As long as these figures are representative of those for other parts of the country, it is highly unlikely that a second large wave will occur anytime soon.
“If so many people were infected the first time, it is likely that there are still not enough people susceptible to the virus for there to be a big second wave, at least for as long as immunity lasts.”
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