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By Shaun Smillie 
3h ago
Johannesburg – The newly released antibody tests for Covid-19 could be the weapon South Africa needs to better prepare if the country is hit by a second wave.
Across Europe, the coronavirus has made a strong comeback. Infection rates are increasing as countries scramble to implement new measures to stop its spread.
In Paris, for the first time, it has become mandatory to wear a mask in public, yet in South Africa infection rates have decreased in recent weeks.
But this might not be for long. There is a debate as to whether and how South Africa will experience this second wave.
Some researchers believe that because the country entered an early lockdown, that second surge could be avoided. Others think it will be a slow infection burn rate that will stay with us for at least the next three years.
Professor Alex Welte of the South African Center of Excellence for Epidemiological Modeling and Analysis believes that the wave is coming.
“So we know there will be a second wave and we know that this time we will have more information,” he says. “But we must feel more empowered to manage the next wave more rationally, so that it has a lower economic impact and we are more effective. And that’s the important use of these tests. “
Antibody testing for Covid-19 can help researchers and healthcare professionals better prepare and determine who is vulnerable to the disease.
The test could also solve that big Covid-19 mystery: how many South Africans have been exposed to the disease during the pandemic.
In other countries, the spread of the disease between populations has been staggering. A study conducted in Mumbai, India in July found that of nearly 7,000 blood samples taken from residents of the city’s slums, 57% tested positive for Covid-19 antibodies. This suggests that half the population was exposed to the virus, and few showed symptoms.
In New York, this figure stood at 14%. As of Thursday night, South Africa had just over 618,000 cases, yet researchers believe the actual infection rate could be 10 times higher.
Antibody tests, Welte explains, would allow researchers to survey the population to understand the actual infection rate. On Tuesday, the South African Health Products Regulatory Authority (SAHPRA) stated that it had issued authorization for one serological test kit and five laboratory serological tests for SARS-Cov-2.
Serological tests, the SAHPRA explained, which can detect whether a person has developed antibodies or not. But the test is not ideal in a clinical setting, says Professor Francois Venter, an infectious disease physician at Ezintsha, Wits University.
“It doesn’t really help you, all it tells you is that you’ve had it recently. It breaks down, turns positive too late, and by then you’re dead or better. “
Venter says that, in the clinical sense, it has become more of a “nice thing to know.” This, interestingly, has sparked a flood of people being tested, to see if they were infected at some point with the Covid-19 virus.
“For epidemiology purposes, it can be very useful. You can work with access points. If we look at Joburg, we could calculate what percentage of the population had it in the last two or three months, how much the closure helped, and who was receiving it, ”Venter explains.
Welte adds that antibody testing will help identify people within the population who might be more vulnerable to infection.
“We need to conduct surveys among those population groups, among teachers, among taxi drivers. and this will tell us if these people have a disproportionate tendency to become infected or not, ”he says.
However, now that these new tests are available, the race has begun to set up the logistics so that samples and surveys can be completed. With more than can be learned about the virus, we can be prepared if that second wave arrives.
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