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South Africa’s tourism industry is preparing for the country’s blockade restrictions to last beyond the end of 2020.
Presenting in a webinar on Monday (May 11), South Africa’s executive tourism office, Sisa Ntshona, said the industry was still working on “estimates” but that according to current projections, the country would only reach level 1 of your first quarter lock. 2021.
“We have no idea when we will move to level 3 as a country, or level 2 or level 1. We also have no idea how long we will stay at level 4. It will all depend on the trajectory of the pandemic.”
He added that tourism in the country will only become partially active at level 2 of the blockade, with the sector starting to fully open again at level 1.
“Based on the current trajectory we are seeing, where September is where we have peak cases of coronavirus, level 2 is likely to kick in around November and level 1 around January 2021,” Ntshona said.
He said this trajectory is also based on current government sector classifications and that it may decide to open tourism in the country at an earlier date if the sector takes steps to reduce risks.
“The conversation that is going on is ‘what can be done’ to remove the risk from the sector. In current form, it is level 1, however it can be reclassified to lower risk and can move up the scale.” .
This aligns with commentary by Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto, who said South Africans should prepare for a roller coaster of level changes for at least the next 12 months.
“Overall, there is still no clear government strategy on how and when, based on medical or economic factors, the country or the subways should move between levels,” he said.
Due to pressures from companies, who are eager to return to economic activity, and the reality of the pandemic, as the peak of infections has not yet been reached, and a second peak is expected as more relaxed restrictions emerge. . Attard Montalto expects a base scenario of many ups and downs in the coming months.
“The national closure can be reduced to level 3 for a month or so, and then back to level 4, and then to level 5 for the peak through July and August,” he said.
“This, before slowly returning to level 2 by the end of the year, and to level 1 in the first quarter of next year, before a ramp rises again in a second wave in mid-2021.”
Read: Why is Ramaphosa not addressing South Africa about the coronavirus every day?
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