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Eskom is now allowed to source more than 11,800 MW from Independent Power Producers (IPP), but this will not solve South Africa’s immediate electricity problems.
This is the opinion of energy expert Chris Yelland, who spoke to ENCA about the Department of Energy’s new determination for the Energy Regulation Act.
The new determination, which was released last week, allows Eskom to tap into coal, gas and renewables producers to address South Africa’s growing energy demands.
- 6,800 megawatts from renewable sources of wind and solar energy;
- 3000 megawatts from gas sources;
- 1,500 megawatts from coal sources; Y
- 513 megawatts of storage.
In your weekly mail to the nation, President Cyril Ramaphosa said Purchasing power from IPPs is part of the government’s plan to tackle the problem of reducing loads in South Africa.
He added that the plan also includes the contracting of renewable electricity generation and an additional provision for self-generation.
While the new acquisition is encouraging news, Yelland cautioned that this will not solve South Africa’s problems any time soon.
“It is very likely that this new capacity will only be operational in three to four years due to the long acquisition process,” he said.
He stressed that the new capacity will still have to go out to tender as part of a bidding process, followed by financial closure and construction.
So while it will address long-term electricity shortages, this latest development will not solve load shedding for years to come.
Cargo shedding is expected to continue for years
In September, Eskom said expects power restrictions to persist for at least the next year, adding that load shedding may extend into 2022 depending on the pressure on the system.
However, other experts expect the situation to be much worse than Eskom predicts.
Research from the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) warned that South Africa should prepare for exponential increases in load reduction through 2022.
“Not only will cargo shedding continue for years to come, it will worsen significantly,” said CSIR’s Dr. Jarrad Wright and Joanne Calitz.
Energy expert Ted Blom, in turn, said South Africa could be stuck with load shedding until at least 2025 due to ongoing problems at Eskom.
He expects the cargo loss to worsen over the next year, as there are still “turf wars” and corruption within Eskom, resulting in inadequate maintenance and major deficiencies in maintenance quality.
The only way to stop loss of head
Yelland previously said the only way to stop charge shedding is to replace low-performance coal-fired power plants with reliable, low-cost wind, solar photovoltaic, battery storage and gas-to-power generation.
“What the country needs is 6,000MW of new generation capacity in the next two to three years,” Yelland said.
“Unless South Africa launches bold and bold decision policy initiatives, burden reduction is here to stay.”
He said these policy initiatives should be aimed at replacing old and deficient coal-fired power plants with new generation capacity.
Yelland added that this new capacity acquisition will not come from Eskom, so legislative and policy changes are needed.
Energy policy and investment specialist Anton Eberhard agreed with Yelland, saying that alternatives to Eskom are needed to build capacity.
He said that due to Eskom’s unsustainable debt levels, it has no possibility of obtaining new funds for the new generation capacity.
“So we need to see alternatives. This is why we need to accelerate utility-scale PPIs to free up the market, ”Eberhard said.
Now Read: There’s Only One Way To Stop South Africa’s Head Loss – Analyst
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