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The Department of Health has released the latest COVID-19 case numbers, showing that South Africa now has 7,572 coronavirus cases.
This is an increase of 352 cases from the previous day and is in line with the trend of the last week.
A total of 268,064 COVID-19 tests were performed in South Africa, and 10,523 of them were performed in the last 24 hours.
The total number of COVID-19-related deaths in South Africa is now 148, compared to 138 yesterday.
The Department of Health provided a breakdown of the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 by province.
| Province | Case numbers |
|---|---|
| west cape | 3,609 |
| Gauteng | 1,697 |
| KwaZulu-Natal | 1,142 |
| Eastern Cape | 838 |
| Free State | 128 |
| Limpopo | 40 |
| northwest | 35 |
| Mpumalanga | 57 |
| North Cape | 26 |
The big question: what happens after the crash?
South Africa has been congratulated for acting swiftly and decisively to stem the spread of the coronavirus using strict blocking rules.
However, a growing number of people are now questioning the government’s strategy around the prolonged blockade, considering the expected loss of jobs and the closure of businesses.
There are many strategies to tackle the coronavirus pandemic, ranging from strict blockades, such as in South Africa, to limited interventions such as those implemented in Sweden.
These measures are usually linked to the result a country is targeting, which can be divided into two categories:
- Flatten the curve – The goal is to control the spread of the virus to avoid or delay the spike to ensure that the health system can cope with demand.
- Eradication – Use strict blocking to completely stop community transmission of the coronavirus, effectively eliminating the virus.
Eradication is a challenge in countries like South Africa, where the virus continues to show strong growth.
Therefore, flattening the curve is the preferred option.
What is not widely reported, at least in South Africa, is that a large percentage of a population must contract coronavirus in the “flatten the curve” strategy.
Epidemiologist at the University of Melbourne Professor Tony Blakely explained Collective immunity is needed to ensure that a second wave of the outbreak is avoided.
“What they are not saying is that ‘flattening the curve’ probably means that by the time this is over, 60% of us will have been infected, to develop collective immunity,” he said.
Blakely argues that collective immunity is necessary to protect society once the restrictions on physical distance and closure are lifted, and when borders are reopened.
This is in part because a COVID-19 vaccine is estimated to be 12 to 18 months away.
Now read: The big question: what happens after the crash?
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