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- Vaccination professor Shabir Madhi says the country is unlikely to reach its target of herd immunity.
- Madhi said the local variant, and a third wave of infections expected later this year, would likely hamper vaccination plans.
- The government aims to vaccinate around 40 million people to achieve herd immunity before the end of the year.
The country is unlikely to reach its 2021 coronavirus herd immunity target and should “recalibrate” expectations around Covid-19 hits, a leading vaccinologist said Monday.
A more communicable coronavirus variant first identified in South Africa late last year fueled the country’s second wave of infection and delayed the start of vaccinations in February.
Studies have shown that the variant is more resistant to most existing vaccines than the original form of the virus and other mutations.
Vaccination professor Shabir Madhi, principal investigator for the Oxford / AstraZeneca vaccine trial in South Africa, said the local variant and a third wave of infections expected later this year would likely hamper inoculation plans.
“We need to recalibrate … our understanding of what we can really achieve with Covid-19 vaccines,” Madhi said in a virtual panel discussion.
“The notion of reaching herd immunity … at least with this first generation of Covid-19 vaccines, is extremely rare.”
READ ALSO | Covid-19: First Wave Hit Poorest Communities Hardest, Probably Improved Herd Immunity: Report
The government aims to vaccinate 67% of its population, around 40 million people, to achieve herd immunity before the end of the year.
The vaccines began last month with injections developed by US pharmaceutical giant Johnson & Johnson.
The launch was briefly delayed after a study found that AstraZeneca vaccines, the first doses to arrive in the country, offered only limited protection against the mild and moderate disease caused by the new variant.
Substantial amounts of the vaccines are only expected in April and May.
Meanwhile, infections are expected to resurface in June or earlier if a limit on mass gatherings is lifted during the upcoming Easter holidays.
So far, South Africa has sourced 11 million Johnson & Johnson vaccines and 20 million doses from a Pfizer-developed jab.
Another 12 million doses are expected from the WHO-backed Covax vaccine cluster initiative, and an undetermined number from the African Union.
The country is the country most affected by the pandemic in Africa, with more than 1.5 million cases and almost 50,000 deaths recorded to date.
But President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Sunday that the start of the vaccines “… went extremely well” and that daily infections had dropped enough to lift almost all movement restrictions.
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