[ad_1]
Illustrative image | Sources: Gallo Images / Darren Stewart | Financial Mail / Freddy Mavunda | EPA / KIM LUDBROOK | Wikimedia | EPA-EFE / Thais Llorca | Waldo Swiegers / Bloomberg
While we all want 2021 to start with a clean slate, it will not. Many key themes from annus horribilis 2020 will be with us well into the new year.
The Covid-19 vaccine
It is clear that the global fight for vaccines will be decided on economic rather than moral criteria, and there is controversy over the number of doses that have already gripped wealthy Western nations. (Canada has already bought enough to vaccinate all citizens five times.) There are huge economic benefits to vaccinating populations as early as possible. But hardly any of the process will be easy for South Africa. Implementation of the vaccine is expected to be prohibitively expensive (from R5 billion to almost R17 billion to inoculate 60% of the population) and there are logistical challenges for vaccinating rural populations. Many of the details of South Africa’s access to the vaccine are still unclear, but the Health Ministry expects to receive doses for “at least 10% of the population” by “the second quarter of 2021.” Hopefully, the jab arrives before winter with its highest burden of disease.
The economy
If things looked dangerous for South Africa before Covid-19, it is no exaggeration to say that the pandemic has made things positively dangerous. An estimated 1.7 million people lost their jobs during the confinement and dozens of more jobs were temporary. Experts say how well and quickly the domestic economy comes out of stagnation depends largely on how soon “normal life” can resume, but with a second wave of Covid-19 and access to the vaccine months away. distance, normality will probably not return. anytime. The tension between the Treasury and the unions over the huge public service wage bill (a whopping R639 billion annually for 1.2 million employees) appears set to continue, as does union opposition to job cuts in state entities in crisis. If Finance Minister Tito Mboweni cannot push through the fiscal reforms he promised, South Africa can expect to be punished again by rating agencies.
Local government elections
This year has taught us not to have anything set in stone, but as things stand, local government elections will take place between August 3 and November 3, 2021. It is a good bet that neither of the main political parties are very excited about it. : The EFF and ANC wanted the polls postponed, and the beating of the prosecutor in the recent by-elections suggests that you need all the extra time you can get. Then there’s the notorious cost of election campaigns, at a time when many feel the rush: The ANC has repeatedly struggled to pay salaries in 2020, and the EFF is known to be short on cash as well. However, the IEC predicts that the municipal elections will be the most contested to date, possibly with some 76,000 candidates nationwide. In past municipal elections, the ANC has underperformed and opposition parties gained ground. But the real question is voter turnout. Even in “normal” times, in 2016, voter turnout was only 58%.
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris
Like it or not, America’s actions affect the rest of the world. The Biden administration will take positive action almost immediately by returning the US to the Paris agreement, the legally binding international treaty on climate change. There are also hopes that it will ease tensions with Iran, relax some sanctions and open the door to further nuclear talks. It will try to build bridges with the Muslim world, including lifting Donald Trump’s travel ban on citizens of Muslim-majority countries. Biden is also expected to return the United States to the World Health Organization and repair relationships with agencies such as NATO. But the conflict with China may persist; The president-elect has spoken harshly about the need for China to be held accountable for unfair trade and environmental practices. The Biden administration is expected to lead to calmer economic waters globally, which would help South Africa.
Shamila batohi
Each year is fraught with public expectations directed at the head of the National Tax Authority (NPA), perhaps more so in 2021 due to the number of important cases that can unfold in court, from the corruption trial of ANC secretary general Ace Magashule. , to the corruption trial of seven top executives of the collapsed VBS Bank, who are expected to be joined by others. Then there’s the endlessly deferred corruption trial (15 years and counting) of former President Jacob Zuma. The Magashule case has raised expectations for more high-profile arrests soon: Two former cadres who should be feeling the heat are former Minister of Mineral Resources Mosebenzi Zwane and former Minister of Water and Sanitation Nomvula Mokonyane. Batohi will be under pressure to produce something special in 2021, as the NPA’s conviction rate has dropped under his tenure.
Weather
COP26, the 2020 UN annual climate summit, had to be postponed due to Covid-19. It will now take place in Glasgow in November 2021, giving activists more time to cajole governments into making more impressive emissions cuts. One positive side of the pandemic is that global CO2 emissions were reduced by about 8% as a result of reduced economic activity and global travel. Those levels are almost certain to pick up as economies rebound, but optimists might hope that the general feeling that “business as usual” cannot prevail will spill over into the weather. The Economist notes that several countries, including Canada and France, have imposed weather-related conditions on rescues to other nations. But others, like China, have recovery plans where coal is critical and have refused to join the commitment to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. Biden has vowed to make the United States an international leader on climate change, and there will be many eager eyes on him in 2021. As Extinction Rebellion likes to remind us, time is ticking.
Judge Raymond Zondo
The State Capture Investigation Commission, led by Judge Raymond Zondo, has until March 31, 2021 to finish its work. No further clues are likely to be released: In the court ruling granting the commission an extension until the end of March, Judge Wendy Hughes said: “In my opinion, no further extensions would be warranted.” (Although Hughes was passing sentence before the pandemic.) There will be enormous pressure on Judge Zondo to produce a final report justifying the commission’s deadline and bill. But since the commission does not have prosecutorial powers, its conclusions, harsh as they may be, probably won’t get much satisfaction unless they are quickly followed up by legal action. There is also the persistent problem of Zuma’s refusal to cooperate with the commission, which has been kicked to the Constitutional Court for resolution near the end of the year. If the commission has to conclude without adequate testimony from Zuma or the Guptas, can it be said that it has thoroughly investigated the state capture?
Boredom
While going out and socializing remains a dangerous business amid Covid-19, many of us have turned to television for entertainment and escape. Hollywood and other film industries around the world have been virtually closed for most of 2020, which means you can expect a lot longer for new series. Vanity fair reports that “only a fraction of film and television projects have resumed production.” In the first quarter of 2021 in particular, new quality TV entertainment is likely to be in short supply. Get ready for many old shows. But not all is lost. The archaic form of escapism known as reading is still very much alive. In fact, record sales were recorded in 2020 when people rediscovered the convenience of a good book. Television is so out of season. DM
