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With mini or “ instant ” lockdowns proposed for areas of South Africa where Covid-19 infections have seen a further increase, economists from the Stellenbosch University Office of Economic Research (BER) say this spells bad news. for the economic recovery of the country.
The BER noted that all of South Africa is experiencing a steady increase in new coronavirus cases, with the seven-day moving average now at about 2,900 daily cases, from 1,500 cases in early November.
This is still far from the more than 12,000 daily cases seen at the peak of the virus in June and July, but it shows a clear upward trend.
The further increase is largely due to the increase in cases seen in the Eastern and Western Cape, the BER said, and authorities officially characterized it as a resurgence.
“The Western Cape government said the province is now officially experiencing a resurgence of the virus, as active cases increased by more than 20%, week-over-week. In fact, new cases increased by more than 52% over the past week in the Western Cape with community transmission newly established.
“The province issued a hotspot alert for Garden Route and the city of Cape Town. George and Knysna reported more new cases than during the peak of the national pandemic in July. Health Minister Dr Zweli Mkhize also expressed concern about the number of positive cases, as well as the increase in hospital admissions and deaths from the virus in the Eastern Cape, ”said the BER.
While the Western Cape government has made it clear that South Africa cannot afford another blockade at the national level, along with the Eastern Cape, they have raised the implementation of stricter restrictions on hotspot areas, a type of mini-blockade or quick blockade. , similar to those seen in Europe.
Weekend reports indicated that these localized blocks could be linked to level 3, however, the BER questioned the plausibility or feasibility of implementing this level of restriction.
“While in theory, local or instant closures could be a sensible approach to ensure that a region’s healthcare system can cope with a surge in cases, it will be challenging to implement in practice, especially before the holiday season. “, said.
“Furthermore, the local blockades will be a setback for the economic recovery in those regions.”
The top markers for lockdown level 3 included restrictions on on-site alcohol consumption, leisure travel, social visits, large meetings, and businesses with more than 100 employees.
Under these rules, people were prohibited from leaving their homes except for traveling to and from work, shopping, exercising during established hours, or for emergencies. Hotels and lodgings were closed and domestic travel for leisure purposes was prohibited.
The BER said that a nationwide resurgence of Covid-19, especially if accompanied by the re-imposition of lockdown restrictions, would definitely quell the ‘encouraging rebound’ seen in the latest business confidence index released last week.
The BCI of RMB / BER rose to 40, from 24 in the third quarter and a record low of 5 in the second.
“The improvement in business confidence was supported by a general recovery in all sectors included in the index. However, sectors linked to consumption performed much better than manufacturing and, in particular, construction.
“While this raises some questions about the sustainability of the improvement, the fact that some growth momentum appears to have been sustained from Q3 to Q4 is encouraging,” he said.
Read: Cape Town considers ‘mini-lockdown’ as spike in Covid-19 cases in South Africa over the weekend
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