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Abiy Ahmed Ali, Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Photo: Getty Images
- Tigray has been the center of power and influence, controlling the government for three decades.
- Tigray leaders have complained of being targeted for corruption trials, removed from the highest positions and scapegoats for the country’s troubles.
- There is concern that a conflict in Ethiopia CIt would reverberate in the already fragile Horn of Africa, with an impact on neighboring Somalia, Eritrea, Djibouti and Sudan.
Ethiopia’s army announced this week that it had “gone to war” with the northern region of Tigray, raising fears of a protracted conflict in Africa’s second most populous nation.
READ | Ethiopian airstrikes on Tigray will continue, says prime minister, as risks of civil war rise
Here’s what you need to know about the unfolding situation:
Why does Tigray matter?
Tigray is the northernmost region of Ethiopia and home primarily to the Tigrayan people, who make up six percent of the national population of more than 110 million people.
It is one of the 10 semi-autonomous federal states organized according to ethnic criteria in Ethiopia.
Yet it has long been a center of power and influence, controlling the government for three decades.
In 1975, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) launched a protracted war against the Derg military government in Addis Ababa, which it finally toppled in 1991.
The TPLF then dominated the ruling alliance made up of four ethno-regional parties, until Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018.
The powerful and seasoned Tigray army also took the lead in Ethiopia’s war against neighboring Eritrea over disputed border territory that raged between 1998 and 2000.
This war was only officially declared over in 2018 in a peace effort by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, which earned him the Nobel Peace Prize.
The TPLF’s fortunes have waned since Abiy, an Oromo, came to power in 2018 after years of anti-government protests forced his predecessor, Hailemariam Desalegn, to resign.
Under Abiy, Tigray leaders have complained of being unjustly targeted in corruption trials, removed from the highest positions and generally scapegoats for the country’s troubles.
A year ago, the TPLF withdrew from the ruling coalition after Abiy merged it with the Prosperity Party.
The dispute grew more intense after Tigray held its own elections in September, challenging the Abiy government, which postponed national elections due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Addis Ababa ruled that the Tigray government was illegal and, in return, Tigray said it no longer recognized the Abiy administration.
The federal government then slashed funding for the region, which the TPLF said was “tantamount to an act of war.”
In what the International Crisis Group called a “sudden and predictable” decline in the conflict, Abiy said on Wednesday that the TPLF had crossed a “red line” and attacked a federal military base in Tigray, forcing a “military confrontation.”
The TPLF accuses Abiy of fabricating history to justify the deployment of the military against him.
A communications blackout in Tigray has made it difficult to verify the situation on the ground.
However, things appeared to have moved quickly, with Abiy claiming that airstrikes had already been carried out against Tigray’s military assets and promising more.
Diplomatic sources report that shelling and heavy fighting has occurred in the west, including along the border between Tigray and the Amhara region to the south.
A humanitarian source told AFP that just over 100 fighters are being treated at various hospitals in the neighboring Amhara region.
Troops are being moved from other parts of the country into Tigray, in an apparent attempt to encircle Tigray’s forces.
A key question is who is in control of the crucial Tigray-based Northern Command army, one of the most armored in the country.
A UN source told AFP that an internal security report said Tigrayan forces were in control of the base.
While the eyes of the world have focused on the United States elections, alarm is mounting at the prospect of a civil war in the country that would pit two powerful armies against each other.
The International Crisis Group warned that unless the fighting is urgently stopped, the conflict “will be devastating not only for the country but for the entire Horn of Africa.”
Given that Tigray has powerful military forces, with an estimated 250,000 soldiers, a war could be “long and bloody.”
The conflict could also further destabilize the diverse nation that has seen multiple outbreaks of ethnic violence in recent years.
Deputy Army Chief Berhanu Jula said: “We are working to ensure that the war does not reach the center of the country. It will end there” in Tigray.
There are concerns that a conflict in Ethiopia could reverberate in the already fragile Horn of Africa, with an impact on neighboring Somalia, Eritrea, Djibouti and Sudan.
“An immediate and concerted mediation – local, regional and international – is needed to avoid a descent into a broader crisis,” the ICG said.
The UN chief, Antonio Guterres, warned that “Ethiopia’s stability is important for the entire Horn of Africa region.”
It is also unclear what this means for Abiy’s democratic reforms and its broader peacemaking efforts in the region, with elections scheduled for next year.
For now, he shows no signs of backing down and has defended his actions, saying the military operation has “clear, limited and achievable objectives: to restore the rule of law and constitutional order.”
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