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In the South African context, there is close to zero value in returning to a hard lockdown, as nothing different will be achieved in controlling the epidemic.
This is the opinion of Professor Shabir Madhi from the University of the Witwatersrand School of Pathology.
The latest data released by Health Minister Zweli Mkhize shows that there are now 732,414 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in South Africa with 19,677 deaths.
What worries the government is the increase in the number of new cases of COVID-19, especially in provinces such as the Eastern Cape.
The increase in cases, Madhi said, is the result of people not adhering to regulations on social distancing and wearing masks.
The increase in cases and the attitude of indifference has led some politicians, such as the Prime Minister of KwaZulu-Natal, Sihle Zikalala, to warn that a strict lockdown was expected to return.
“Looking at the statistics, we can now safely say that we will definitely return to a hard lockdown if there is not an urgent and drastic change in behavior,” Zikalala said.
President Cyril Ramaphosa, however, dismissed speculation that South Africa is returning to a hard lockdown, saying no such decision has been made.
Ramaphosa said they are beginning to see signs that they are concerned, including super spreader events.
The second hard block won’t help South Africa
Commenting on the speculation of going back to a tougher lock, Madhi said there is virtually no value in going to higher lock levels.
“Nothing different is going to be achieved medically and in terms of controlling the epidemic relative to people who adhere to current regulations,” he said.
“Even during the level 5 lockdown in South Africa, there was still ongoing community transmission.”
He said that all the strict lockdown really accomplished was delaying the pandemic a few weeks into the future.
The number of infections in South Africa would have occurred regardless of whether we had a blockage or not.
The only difference is that the sanitary facilities in South Africa were able to prepare, as the closure gave them time.
“Now that the health care facilities have to be prepared, that is no longer a reason to stay locked up,” Madhi said.
He added that the blockade had a great impact on the country’s economy and people’s livelihoods.
“A second lockdown is not an option for South Africa,” he said.
Madhi’s opinion is in line with that of President of the South African Medical Association (SAMA), Angelique Coetzee, who said there is currently no strong case for a second hard block.
He said the most important thing to do right now is to modify the current restrictions to focus on mass gatherings.
“Mass gatherings, like bars, sporting events, churches and funerals, is where our super broadcasters usually start,” Coetzee said.
Additionally, he urged people to adhere to current guidelines, such as wearing masks, social distancing, and washing their hands regularly.
Interview with Professor Shabir Madhi
Average COVID-19 Cases per Day
Now read: Second blockade unlikely in South Africa – SAMA president
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