Everything you need to know about the American elections

November 3, 2020 is Election Day in the United States, and Americans across the country have already begun casting their votes to elect their next president and vice president, along with members of Congress, governors, and local officials. .

Here are some frequently asked questions about the choice and what to expect.

HOW HAS COVID-19 AFFECTED THE ELECTION?

Historically, the vast majority of the American electorate votes in three ways: in person on Election Day, in person early, or by absentee, also known as vote-by-mail. COVID-19 and the concerns and restrictions associated with large face-to-face gatherings have caused election officials across the country to shift priorities and resources to ensure Americans can safely cast their votes.

The biggest change for many American voters this year is the increase in absentee voting and voting by mail. Some version of voting by mail had traditionally been available in all states before the pandemic, but the practice has expanded enormously this year.

Nine states, plus the District of Columbia, have proactively sent ballots to all registered voters before the election, while another 34 have instituted “no-excuse” policies, allowing anyone to vote absentee. Total, The New York Times predicts that 75% of registered US voters will be eligible to receive a mail-in ballot this year, with more than 87 million ballots sent so far.

Additionally, voters concerned about the security of traditional operations on Election Day are showing up at early voting locations in significant numbers. Forty-three states, plus DC, offer some version of early voting, which allows people to cast their vote in person before Election Day. Long lines across the country indicate a dramatic increase in early voting this year, as more and more Americans try to avoid the typical Election Day crowds.

According to the US Election Project, as of October 30, more than 80 million early and absentee votes have been reported, easily surpassing the 58 million counted in all of 2016. These numbers are expected to continue to rise as voters They take extra precautions to ensure your vote is counted safely.

HOW WILL THIS IMPACT OVERALL VOTER ROTATION?

Although these dramatic changes in early voting and by mail make it difficult to forecast overall turnout in elections, political experts predict higher numbers than in 2016 and other recent elections. The popular FiveThirtyEight polling and analysis website, as well as the U.S. Elections Project, predict that turnout will be around 65% of the population eligible to vote, which would be the highest since 1908 and significantly higher. than 61.4% share of 2016.

Nearly 240 million Americans are currently of legal age and eligible to vote, so if the predictions come true, more than 150 million votes will be cast this cycle.

HOW IS THE WINNER DETERMINED?

The United States uses the Electoral College system to determine who becomes president. The framers of the United States Constitution placed great importance on checks and balances of power, and the system helped preserve the rights of individual states while protecting an independent executive branch. To put it in context, the country had just gained its independence from the British monarchy, and the drafters had to design a new system for a new country whose people had never elected a national leader before.

Alexander Hamilton outlined the Electoral College logic in one of the Federalist Papers (# 68): it was thought to be a fail-safe, an obstacle “opposed to clique, intrigue, and corruption.” Essentially, the system was created as a compromise between the election of representatives by a popular vote and a vote in Congress, although it is notable that its popularity among Americans has declined in recent decades.

The candidate with the most votes in a state generally becomes the winner of the Electoral College votes for that state (with the exception of Maine and Nebraska, which use a district-by-district allocation). The number of Electoral College votes assigned to each state is calculated by adding the number of senators (each state has two), plus the number of delegates the state has in the House of Representatives (which varies by population). For example, Massachusetts has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College (2 senators + 9 representatives); Hawaii has four. In total, there are currently 538 electoral votes, and to become president, a candidate must obtain an absolute majority, or at least 270 of the electoral votes (the District of Colombia has 3 votes from the Electoral College but has no representation with the right to vote in Congress since it is a district and not a state).

If no candidate obtains an absolute majority of votes from the Electoral College, the House of Representatives votes to choose a winner. This has happened twice before, in 1800 to resolve a tie in the electoral college, and in 1824 when a three-way split prevented any candidate from reaching an absolute majority in the electoral college.

Five presidents, including incumbent President Donald Trump, have failed to win the popular vote, but have obtained enough Electoral College votes to become president.

WHAT ARE THE TOP STATES TO SEE?

According to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, there are 13 states or constituencies that are considered “discarded” or that lean slightly toward one presidential candidate or another. They are: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine (2nd district), Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska (2nd district), Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. These 13 represent a total of 201 electoral votes, so be sure to keep an eye on your results on Election Night and beyond.

WILL WE MEET THE WINNER ON ELECTION NIGHT?

Probably not. State-by-state results are typically “called up” by a variety of election analysts, such as the Associated Press, using vote counts, demographics, and regional statistics. The increase in early voting and by mail will make calling the states on Election night that much more difficult. The timing of absentee and early ballots varies by state; some states count and report these votes before Election Day, and others wait until the votes have been counted in person.

Also, some states count mail-in ballots for weeks after Election Day, as long as they are postmarked November 3, so it may take some time to receive and count many ballots. Several results, especially those in close rocking states, likely won’t arrive until late at night or even later that week. Recounts or legal action could further delay results.

States are required to “certify” their election results within a few weeks after Election Day, which involves final counting, verification, and submission of vote totals. On December 14, state voters will meet to officially cast their votes, and on January 6, 2021, a joint session of Congress will be convened to count electoral votes and officially declare the results. In 2000, a winner was not declared until mid-December. Joe Biden or Donald Trump will be officially sworn in as President at noon ET on January 20, 2021.

THE SUPREME COURT HAS BEEN IN THE NEWS A LOT LATELY. HOW COULD I GET INTO PLAY?

Following the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg in September, much of the political conversation in the US has centered on the precedent of President Trump and the US Senate confirming his replacement. , Judge Amy Coney Barrett. However, the court and its newly confirmed judge could almost immediately be thrown into a different spotlight if asked to decide the choices.

As the highest court in the nation, the Supreme Court could be convened to decide a variety of matters, including those related to emergency changes to the electoral process made in a variety of states. The court was convened in 2000 to help decide litigation in Florida, a key state that would have tipped the final elections toward either Democrat Al Gore or Republican George Bush. The court ruled in Bush’s favor in mid-December, granting him the necessary votes to succeed in the electoral college and become the 43rd president of the United States.

According to the Stanford-MIT Healthy Elections Project, there have been more than 300 cases in more than 44 states related to election law and COVID-19, and any (other than those related to Election Day activities) could trigger an action in the Supreme Court.

HOW ARE YOUNG PEOPLE AFFECTED?

Both parties often struggle to get younger Americans to vote. In 2016, only 46.1% of registered voters ages 18-29 cast a vote, the lowest percentage of any age range surveyed.

But youth enthusiasm and activism has exploded in recent years, and experts expect near-record turnout this year. A recent study by the Harvard Institute of Politics found that 63% of respondents ages 18-29 say they will “definitely vote in November,” a dramatic increase from the 47% who responded positively in 2016.

Written by Jackson Spivey, Community Specialist, IO and Regional Strategies – North America, World Economic Forum.

Reissued courtesy of the World Economic Forum.

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