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The number of weekly deaths in South Africa once again exceeds historical forecasts. This is according to the latest report from the South African Medical Research Council (MRC).
This is almost certainly due to Covid-19, and it comes after a few quiet weeks in which the death toll was only slightly above estimates based on historical data.
Each week, the MRC publishes the estimated weekly number of deaths in South Africa based on death registration data obtained from the Department of Home Affairs.
The data for each week shows the upper and lower prediction for the number of deaths and the actual forecast number that is midway between the upper and lower limits. This is calculated based on historical data.
Excess deaths, which refers to the difference between the observed number of deaths and the number of deaths predicted based on historical patterns, has exceeded the upper prediction for the week ending October 13.
The expected number of deaths between October 7 and 13 was 8,860. However, the MRC recorded a total of 10,109 deaths, an excess of more than 1,200 deaths.
But this is still much better than the situation in July, when there were more than 6,000 excess deaths in a few weeks.
The excess death count from natural causes (i.e. no homicide, suicide, or accident) for the period from May 6 to October 13, 2020 stands at just under 47,000, while the number of deaths in excess for all causes is 40,000.
Unnatural deaths are much lower this year, perhaps primarily due to the reduction in the number of cars on the road during the shutdown, although since level 2 began on August 18 unnatural deaths have started to rise again.
All provinces are reporting deaths above the forecast, but in recent weeks the Free State, Eastern Cape and Western Cape appear to have the steepest increases relative to population size.
At the height of the pandemic, in July, the worst affected countries were Gauteng, Eastern Cape and the Free State.
Written by Marecia Damons
This article first appeared on GroundUp. You can read the original here.
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