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By Shaun Smillie 
2h ago
The Covid 19 virus could be running out of people to infect in Gauteng, this because many of its residents may already have had the virus.
In some areas of Gauteng, studies have shown that between 35% and 45% of residents were exposed to Covid 19, and most did not even know they were infected with the potentially deadly virus.
This, believes Professor Shabir Madhi, executive director of the Vaccine Testing and Infectious Diseases Research Unit, could be the reason the country is experiencing a sudden decline in Covid 19 infections.
“So, once a high proportion of the population is infected and together with the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions such as the use of masks, physical distancing, etc., what happens is that herd immunity is activated”, explains Madhi . “This is where a large enough percentage of the population has developed immunity against the virus. Therefore, the virus can no longer be transmitted efficiently between people. “
The drop in the infection rate in recent weeks has sparked speculation that President Cyril Ramaphosa could move the lockdown to Level One in a couple of days. On Wednesday night, Ramaphosa told members of the National Publishers Forum from South Africa (Sanef) in a virtual conversation to “watch this space” when asked about how to facilitate the blockade.
South Africa’s decline in Covid infections runs counter to what other countries, particularly in Europe, are currently facing.
Many are battling a second wave of the disease and imposing tougher blocks.
“The mystery is that despite the fact that so many people were infected and with such a high percentage of the population possibly infected, why did this not translate into a serious illness or an excessive number of deaths”, says Madhi, about the experience of the pandemic in South Africa.
He explained that the researchers had conducted tests in the Western Cape and Gauteng, where they looked for Covid 19 antibodies. Results so far show that both provinces possibly experienced higher infection rates than anticipated.
Professor Alex van den Heever, who holds the Chair of Studies in Administration and Management of Social Security Systems at Wits University, explained that this high immunity to the disease did not have to be widely extended to limit the national infection rate.
“So in high-risk areas, where people have had a hard time distancing themselves socially and have had to use taxi transportation, those communities seem to have had a high prevalence,” says Van den Heever. “So maybe these very localized but very important areas have allowed immunity to develop.”
Those working in communities battling the disease have also seen with relief this slowdown in Covid 19 infections. Dr. Hemant Makan during the peak was sending three to four tests a day to labs for testing. Any symptomatic patient would be examined.
“We haven’t had a positive swab in three weeks,” says the family doctor whose practice is based in Lenasia. Makan is part of the SIM task force, a community initiative in Lenasia that was mobilized to combat the Coronavirus.
“If there’s one thing we’ve learned in the last six months, it’s that we don’t know much. It’s been very difficult to understand what’s going on. And the phrase we use often was let’s see what happens next week,” recalls Dr. Yazeed Seedat, which is also part of the SIM initiative.
At the top, the SIM team often struggled to find hospitals to take their patients due to a shortage of beds.
In the coming weeks, Madhi and other researchers will do more tests to understand how the disease spread and to explain why so many South Africans became infected with the virus but did not become seriously ill. They have yet to find out how much of the Gauteng population was exposed to the virus.
“The studies we have carried out are located in certain communities. It is quite possible that the percentage of the population with Covid 19 in densely populated areas such as Soweto, Alexandra and the city center, is higher than that of people living in areas such as Sandton and Houghton. This is due to different circumstances, ”he says.
But even so, Van den Heever cautions that following social distancing protocols, wearing masks and hand washing are still important and a change in behavior could lead to an increase in infections.
“If we start acting like we did in February, we will probably see a resurgence. But if we maintain current protocols, we could see a continuation of the downtrend. ”
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