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A cemetery in Cape Town. Photo: Jenni Evans, News24
- The Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA) has updated its model of expected deaths in South Africa due to Covid-19.
- In its most optimistic scenario in April, ASSA expected more than 48,000 South Africans to die from Covid-19.
- Now he is painting a more positive picture, although thousands could still die.
- For more articles, go to www.BusinessInsider.co.za.
The Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA) has just released an updated model of how many people can die from Covid-19 in South Africa, and it paints a much more optimistic picture than a couple of months ago.
At the end of April, ASSA warned that according to its projections, 48,000 South Africans would die from Covid-19 by the end of August, “if the government does not maintain a strict approach to flatten the curve.”
In the end, South Africa continued with a strict lockdown for many months, and deaths were still below 15,000 on Monday this week. This is the thirteenth highest number of deaths in the world, but adjusted for population size, South Africa ranks 23rd. Fewer than 260 South Africans have died per million, well below countries like the United Kingdom (612 per million). million) and the United States (570 per million).
In April, ASSA’s “most optimistic scenario” held that 48,300 people would die, in total, in South Africa. That assumed government interventions would be successful, with breeding numbers reduced to 1.5, meaning that the average coronavirus carrier would infect only 1.5 other people.
An updated version of ASSA’s Covid-19 model was released this week, taking into account new research, as well as the effect the lockdown had on the spread of the coronavirus and mortality rates.
While 30 different scenarios were modeled, the organization highlighted two scenarios.
The first assumes low infection rates due to blockage and that mortality per million reaches a maximum of 481. The model includes that 75% of those infected with Covid-19 remain asymptomatic. Under this scenario, South Africa would have 27,000 dead by the end of the year.
In the second scenario, only 35% of those who become infected are asymptomatic. There are moderate levels of interactions between infected and uninfected people, and the local mortality per million increases to 876, which is currently among the highest in the world, leaving 50,000 dead by the end of the year.
Lusani Mulaudzi, president of ASSA, says one of the key changes in their models was around levels of susceptibility to the coronavirus. While the original version assumed that everyone had the same risk of contracting the virus and developing Covid-19, the revised version of the model allows for different rates of contact and infection.
“The reality is that not everyone comes into contact with the same number of people, and not everyone is equally susceptible to becoming ill after coming into contact with the virus.”
Furthermore, the first ASSA model assumed that 75% of the population would remain asymptomatic, but the updated version introduces a range of percentages of the population that contracts the coronavirus without developing symptoms.
But ASSA cautions that while its new model fits the death data published daily by the National Institute of Communicable Diseases (NICD), the official death count is likely underestimated.
Last month, the South African Medical Research Council recorded nearly 40,000 “excess deaths” – the number of people who died above expectations – in the country. These deaths are not officially recorded as due to Covid-19.
Mulaudzi notes that the actual death toll is likely between the NICD figures and the reported excess deaths. He says that future work on the model will consider the use of adjusted death rates.
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