[ad_1]
- While all the polls seem to be ahead of Joe Biden, players see a different reality and are betting on Donald Trump.
- In the United States, gambling in national or local elections is illegal, but all the action occurs on foreign gambling sites.
- Many punters who have bet on Trump are now expecting a replay of 2016, when he staged a surprising comeback against Democratic rival Hillary Clinton to win the White House.
At the moment, all the polls seem to go the way of Joe Biden before the presidential election in November. But players see a different reality and are betting on Donald Trump.
The Republican incumbent, who is seeking a second term, has slowly regressed since the end of July to almost level with the former Democratic vice president.
For some Australian and British bookmakers, Trump is the favorite of the odds.
Gambling in national or local elections is illegal in the United States. All the action happens on foreign gambling sites, which Americans can sometimes access.
A $ 100 bet on a Trump win today could bring the bettor a $ 190 return if he wins.
“There is no question that momentum appears to have returned in favor of President Trump,” said Rupert Adams, a spokesman for British bookmaker William Hill, which has already accepted more than $ 1.3 million in election bets.
Lee Price, a spokesman for Irish gaming brand Paddy Power, explains that after a slowdown in gambling activity due to the coronavirus crisis, interest “has started to pick up in recent weeks.”
READ | Trump called American soldiers who died during WWI ‘losers’ and ‘fools’
“We think the Trump factor will surely keep bettors interested,” Price told AFP.
Many who have bet on Trump are now expecting a repeat of 2016, when the Manhattan real estate mogul staged a surprising comeback against Democratic rival Hillary Clinton to win the White House.
‘Simply terrifying’
British bookmaker Betfair has taken in £ 10 million ($ 13 million) in bets on the White House race since Aug. 23, on the eve of the Republican nominating convention.
That brings his total so far to £ 72 million, compared to £ 33 million at the same point in the campaign in 2016.
Betfair expects to break the record £ 199 million bet in 2016, half of which came after polling stations closed, spokesman Darren Hughes explained.
Beyond the main event, Paddy Power goes for some wacky themes: Will Trump paint the White House gold (500-1)? Will you have an airport in Mexico with your name (66-1)?
But Price says interest in those kinds of bets has waned a bit.
READ ALSO | Uproar grows amid reports Trump called US war dead ‘losers’
“Trump is less wacky and quirky and funny,” Price says, calling the president’s current behavior “just terrifying.”
Matthew Collins, a 29-year-old Australian sales consultant, made 21 separate bets before the Republican convention, nearly all of them on Trump.
He chose the president to win again in November, but also as the winner of several specific states. In total, he deposited about A $ 20,000 ($ 14,500), a sum he won on a bet that Biden would choose Kamala Harris as his running mate.
Collins, who describes himself as politically left-wing, says he believes Trump has gained momentum since his party’s convention in late August, which came in the immediate aftermath of the Democrats’ event.
“Republicans seem to like the United States. They don’t hate their own country. I didn’t get that from the DNC, so I think their message is not persuasive,” Collins said.
‘Look where the money goes’
Nick Freiling, chief executive of a market research firm, who bet $ 300 on a Trump win in traditionally Democratic Minnesota, says the gap between candidates is normal to narrow as November approaches.
The coronavirus crisis is another major factor, he said: Trump faced harsh criticism for his handling of the pandemic, but the issue “is constantly fading from our public consciousness and people are less angry about things, in general.”
Collins said he did not believe the polls were “representative of reality” and said the margin of error “must be so high.”
MUST READ | Former Trump lawyer said the US president would ‘start a war’ to stop being removed from office
For Freiling, “the polls can be of ‘likely voters’ and show that Biden is winning. But what about the enthusiasm of voters for his candidate (which is correlated with turnout)? Trump is winning that battle by huge margins “.
“Watch where the money goes,” Collins said, predicting that Trump will dominate all three of his debates with Biden. “That’s what really matters to people.”
He noted that voters can lie to pollsters about who they support, which could skew the results.
Those with skin in the gambling game are also on the lookout for the likely massive proportion of votes cast by mail this year, due to concerns about the coronavirus, a potential game changer.
“It feels like a situation that could get very complicated,” Collins said.
We know it was a long read and your time is precious. Did you know that now you can listen to articles? Subscribe to News24 to access this exciting feature and more.
