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The ANC’s grip on Gauteng is loosening. (Photo: Waldo Swiegers / Bloomberg via Getty Images)
The upcoming elections could see a political restart if the ruling party loses control of South Africa’s economic heartland.
First published by ISS today.
South Africa appears to be stuck with a ruling party unable to put the country on a growth trajectory while fighting its inner demons. And as we examined in an online event on September 3, the ANC may have a difficult time retaining control of the Gauteng metropolitan areas and the province itself in the 2021 local and 2024 national elections.
There are only three ways the deadlock can be broken. The first is that the reformist faction within the party led by President Cyril Ramaphosa gains the promotion, which seems possible only through the removal of Ace Magashule as secretary general. The second is through the ballot and the third is with an ANC division.
The ANC National Conference of December 2017 ended in a narrow victory for Ramaphosa and the reformist faction. The so-called Premier League, which included then-provincial prime ministers Magashule and David Mabuza, won three of the top six spots, including vice president and secretary general.
With a consensus and process-oriented president, it is difficult to try to hold the various ideologies and beliefs together in a single ANC tent. Furthermore, the general secretary benefits from an extraordinarily broad mandate. He is the administrative director of the party, keeps a record of national meetings and must ensure that all key structures and units carry out their functions properly.
Under the ANC constitution, General Secretary Magashule can only be removed at the next elective conference in late 2022, when the party again votes for the members of the National Executive Committee (NEC) and the first six.
The decision of the National Prosecutor’s Office (NPA) to prosecute Magashule for a “serious crime” could, of course, change things. This is because the NEC agreed that: “ANC cadres who are formally charged with corruption or other serious crimes should immediately withdraw from all leadership positions in the ANC, legislatures or other government structures pending the termination of their cases “.
But what if Magashule refuses to step aside and raises support within the NEC to remain secretary general? This could become the ultimate test in the battle for ANC leadership and leads us to the second option: the electoral prospects of an ANC that is rapidly losing the support of voters.
That process could begin in 2021 in Gauteng with local government elections that will set the stage for provincial and national elections in 2024. During the 2019 vote, support for the ANC fell to 53.2% in Gauteng and, during the elections of local governments in 2016, it was only 46%, while that of the Democratic Alliance (DA) increased to 36.7%.
Still, toppling the ANC in Gauteng would require notable political performance from the new Action SA party established by former Johannesburg Mayor Herman Mashaba. The DA is the country’s official opposition party, but it would need a change of fortune as it appears to be losing support.
Mashaba would have to attract enough non-voters and ANC members to his party to form a credible and stable governing coalition, targeting all three metropolitan areas – Tshwane, Ekurhuleni and Johannesburg – in 2021 as a step towards Gauteng’s capture in 2024. A non-ANC coalition in 2024 could be achievable. But if Ramaphosa could gain clear ancestry within the ANC, the party could increase its voter support.
Mashaba’s challenge is that Action SA is likely better able to attract DA voters, with little apparent political distinction between Action SA and a DA under John Steenhuisen. Several of Mashaba’s senior staff are from the DA which was led by Mmusi Maimane.
Action SA would need to maintain a laser-like focus on the ANC rather than fight for second place with the DA. Hopefully, these prospects could evolve into a pro-growth government alliance that excludes the ANC and possibly even economic freedom fighters.
For the ANC the stakes are high. In Destiny of the nation I speculated that once the ANC loses South Africa’s economic heart, Gauteng, it is essentially a rural party that relies on alliances with traditional leaders for a shrinking political base. South Africa is urbanizing, education levels are improving, and the country is modernizing. A traditionalist party would be swimming against the current and could rapidly deteriorate into a regional base of support.
The third option for a political reboot is a split in the ANC, with the two dominant factions facing a bitter divorce. If that happened, and once the dust settles, the rump of the ANC support base would likely go with Ramaphosa, South Africa’s long-time most popular politician.
But the party would likely lose its national majority, Gauteng, and possibly even its majorities in other provinces such as the Northern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, and the Free State. As the leader of South Africa’s largest party, even after a split, Ramaphosa should be able to put together a governing coalition.
But he would need national and provincial coalition partners to govern. It would be complicated and could well spell the end of the ANC as the dominant force in South African politics. However, a split from the ANC remains unlikely as it is the membership’s available business and career opportunities that keep everyone in the same store.
In the short term, all eyes are on the NPA’s response to the mountain of evidence against the so-called gangster state leader, the title of a damning book about Magashule’s time as prime minister of the Free State province. The decision to prosecute Magashule would seriously weaken his faction, but only if Ramaphosa seizes that opportunity to stamp his authority on the ANC.
Eventually, some of these scenarios can happen or combine. Whatever it is, South Africa will not be able to achieve economic recovery and growth without comprehensive political realignment. DM
Jakkie Cilliers is Director of African Futures and Innovation, ISS Pretoria.
