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Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, Naledi Pandor.
- South Africa will intensify its efforts to help Mozambique cope with a violent insurgency in its province of Cabo Delgado.
- The insurgency could have a variety of implications for South Africa, including displaced Mozambicans seeking refuge here.
- Minister Naledi Pandor’s report to Parliament is the greatest detail the government has publicly shared on the situation.
South Africa will intensify its efforts to provide support to Mozambique to end insecurity and limit the impact of a violent Islamist insurgency in the north of the country, said the Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, Naledi Pandor.
On Wednesday evening, he briefed the International Relations and Cooperation Portfolio Committee on the situation in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique’s northernmost mineral-rich province, where an insurgency from a group called Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama (ASWJ), that It began in 2017 and escalated into violence since early 2020.
ASWJ appears to have some connection to ISIS, which has threatened South Africa that there will be action within the republic if it gets involved, but Pandor did not address this aspect.
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Before his briefing, Pandor said that the situation was very complex and continually evolving, with different schools of thought defining different causes, drivers and actors involved.
He said that while the insurgency had started with basic weapons, in recent months, as attacks increased, the weaponry used had become more sophisticated.
Pandor said the region’s major liquefied natural gas (LNG) project has the potential to catapult Mozambique into the status of a middle-income country and place it among the top 10 LNG producers in the world.
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He said that it could not be confirmed whether it was a guerrilla movement evolving towards terrorism or a terrorist group using guerrilla tactics in search of political, financial and moral support from other radicalized religious groups.
He said that the attacks were mainly against the Mozambican population and its state.
There are no known attacks on Westerners and all Western investments in the province are protected by private security companies.
According to information from Pandor, the first half of the year has been marked by a series of increasingly violent attacks, characterized by sabotage against entire towns, civilians, government buildings, NGOs and churches. It has left more than 10% of the population of the province internally displaced and cities and towns have been looted after being occupied.
Insurgent occupation of cities for long periods has become a feature, and some cities and towns remain abandoned by their original inhabitants.
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This has caused the internal displacement of the citizens of the province. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates that around 250,000 people have been internally displaced, representing approximately 10% of the Cabo Delgado population, while more than 1,100 people have died.
The violence has affected some of the neighboring provinces through migration and disrupted the livelihoods of farmers, mostly subsistence farmers, who fear returning to their land.
“The emergence of conflict in Mozambique is a disturbing change in the peace that has characterized SADC for many years,” Pandor said.
“South Africa will intensify its efforts to support Mozambique to quickly end insecurity and limit its impact.”
Expected implications for South Africa:
- Internally displaced persons may end up seeking refuge in South Africa;
- Mozambique has just assumed the presidency of SADC, which represents a great opportunity for both countries to strengthen cooperation between SADC and the AU, as well as between South Africa and Mozambique;
- South Africa is also the incoming chair of the SADC Policy, Defense and Security Body, and will be directly involved in regional peace and security issues for the next three years;
- There is a great opportunity for South Africa to import natural gas from Mozambique, so the security of Cabo Delgado is of great interest to South Africa and its energy diversification strategy; and
- South African law enforcement agencies need to improve their capacity and data to allow the right decisions to be considered.
Pandor said South Africa would consider, in addressing the situation, direct and ongoing involvement at the director level, increasing discussions on regional (SADC) and continental (AU) level solutions to the conflict, sharing information between Mozambique and regional partners, and security cooperation.
Pandor also said that the international community, including the African Union (which South Africa chairs under the theme “Silencing the Guns”), the UN and the Southern African Development Community, had paid more attention to the insurgency in recent months.
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Pandor’s briefing was the most detailed information the government has publicly provided on the situation in Cabo Delgado.
When asked about the issue in Parliament, Defense and Military Veterans Minister Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula has been prone to holding her letters close to her chest.
State Security Minister Ayanda Dlodlo, in an interview with News24, however, admitted that it is a concern and is receiving attention from South African intelligence agencies.
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