South Africa’s coronavirus blockade: doubts creep

It is tempting to imagine that South Africa will look back, almost fondly, at the end of March 2020 as a special moment in its young democracy.

As many nations around the world seemed to stagger, panic, or even turn their backs on the growing Covid-19 threat, this country was possessed of a rare and extraordinary degree of unity and resolve.

President Cyril Ramaphosa, a man whose consensus-building instincts have long been a source of frustration for many here, transformed into a man of action, abruptly implementing a series of almost unimaginably severe and decisive steps that changed South Africa from overnight, and they proved surprisingly effective in breaking the upward curve of infection.

In an era when many politicians are searching for war metaphors and comparisons, this was, one could argue, South Africa’s Dunkirk moment: an inspired retreat in the face of a formidable adversary who bought the country essential time (as the evacuations did Dunkirk for the wartime British military) to regroup and shore up their defenses.

That “Dunkirk spirit” has not yet evaporated. Far from there. At the base, in particular, South Africa is still teeming with examples of ingenuity and cohesion as businesses and communities come together to help each other and support the millions who increasingly struggle to feed their families.

‘Enemy Generals’

But now we’ve been in what is still one of the toughest blockages on earth for more than six weeks, government health experts predict that the peak of the epidemic may still be two or three months away, the number of infections it is increasing in some regions and the shock The silence and prompt conformity that welcomed Ramaphosa’s first dictates have been replaced by an increasingly skeptical, angry and politicized debate.

A return to business as always in this famous and frenetic nation?

Maybe. But South Africa is entering a long and difficult period in its fight against Covid-19.

To borrow another parallel from World War II, it could be argued that, after the success of its Dunkirk phase, these could be the Stalingrad months in the country: a tough battle of attrition characterized by tensions in skirmishes, general fights, and a potential collapse. in the morale of the troops.

Ramaphosa has not retired to his bunker, in fact, he has continued to earn praise for his balanced approach, urging South Africans to avoid careless or reckless behavior and to “accept reality, prepare for it and adapt to it.”

But the image of a united cabinet of the African National Congress (ANC), so important in terms of convincing the public to suffer such difficulties indefinitely, is eroding.

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A gap seems to separate those who, perhaps more inclined to follow China’s example, favor a more intrusive and burdensome approach by the state, including plans to quarantine new cases of confirmed viruses in hospitals and the decision to extend the controversial ban on all cigarette and alcohol purchases and apply a new night curfew, from those in the cabinet more in tune with business lobby interests who would rather see a lighter touch and the shutdown eased more quickly .

There is a logic to both approaches, and there is nothing wrong with robust debate within government. But as many countries are now discovering, the nuanced calculations and messages required in this second phase of the pandemic are proving even more difficult to guess than pressured decisions from the early stage.

And what is at stake here is particularly high.

Business leaders now warn that if the shutdown is not drastically reduced soon, South Africa’s gross domestic product could shrink by more than 16%, and as many as four million jobs could be threatened, staggering figures for any country, but particularly challenging for a economy that is already in recession and struggling with an unemployment rate of 27%.

The main opposition, the Democratic Alliance (DA), warned that the government is abusing its power with “arbitrary rules” and “scandalous announcements” that “increasingly face resistance and even civil disobedience.”

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The prosecutor wants alcohol and cigarette bans to be lifted and the “ANC closure crisis” to end.

The ANC, in turn, accused the prosecutor of conduct “dishonest … irresponsible and reckless.”

In trying to overcome these disputes, President Ramaphosa has emphasized the dangers, already seen in other countries, of a “second wave” of infections.

Hovering over all these concerns and considerations is the key question of South Africa’s own health system and whether it can contain the viral spikes that many experts now believe are approaching, and whether the crucial weeks of overtime gained by Dunkerque’s initial strategy The government has been seizing enough to change course in the Stalingrad battles that may yet to come.