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The number of deaths from AIDS-related illnesses in sub-Saharan Africa could double if health care for HIV sufferers is interrupted during the coronavirus crisis, the United Nations said Monday.
A six-month interruption of antiretroviral therapy due to the Covid-19 pandemic could lead to more than 500,000 additional deaths in the region in 2020-2021, the World Health Organization (WHO) and UNAIDS said in a joint statement.
In 2018, according to the latest figures given, an estimated 470,000 people died from AIDS-related deaths in sub-Saharan Africa.
The two UN agencies warned of the impact if HIV services are closed, supply chains are disrupted, or health services are overwhelmed due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Models made for the agencies said a six-month interruption in HIV health care services could set the clock back to 2008, when there were more than 950,000 AIDS-related deaths in the region.
“The terrible possibility that half a million more people in Africa will die of AIDS-related diseases is like stepping back in history,” said WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
Side effects would see people continue to die excessively for the next five years, according to the statement.
In sub-Saharan Africa in 2018, an estimated 25.7 million people were living with HIV, of whom 16.4 million were taking antiretroviral therapy.
Tedros said some countries were already implementing measures such as ensuring that people can collect treatment packages and self-assessment kits in bulk.
“We must also ensure that global supplies of tests and treatments continue to flow to countries that need them,” he added.
Five teams of modelers used different approaches to resolve the effects of possible disruptions in testing, prevention, and treatment services caused by Covid-19.
With a six-month break, estimates of excess AIDS-related deaths in one year ranged from 471,000 to 673,000.
Disrupted services could also reverse progress made in preventing mother-to-child transmission of HIV, the agencies said.
HIV infections in children in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 43 percent from 250,000 in 2010 to 140,000 in 2018.
Reducing HIV services for mothers and their children could see new childhood HIV infections rise by as much as 37 percent in Mozambique, 78 percent in Malawi and Zimbabwe, and 104 percent in Uganda, according to the model. .
“There is a risk that the hard-earned gains from the AIDS response will be sacrificed in the fight against Covid-19,” said UNAIDS Executive Director Winnie Byanyima.
“We cannot sit down and allow hundreds of thousands of people, many of them young, to die unnecessary deaths.
“I urge governments to ensure that all men, women and children living with HIV receive regular supplies of antiretroviral therapy, something that literally saves lives.”
Since the first HIV cases were reported more than 35 years ago, 78 million people have become infected with HIV and 35 million have died from AIDS-related illnesses, UNAIDS said.
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