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The extended five-week national blockade postponed South Africa’s worst Covid-19 scenario until September, according to a government projection.
Without blocking, South Africa is estimated to reach its peak of coronavirus infections in July. A five-week shutdown, which has paralyzed the economy, is buying the government two more months to prepare for a flood of hospitals in late winter.
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This is according to a presentation made to Parliament’s portfolio committee on health this week by the acting director general of the health department, Anban Pillay, a copy of which News24 has obtained.
It is the most detailed official analysis to date of the current situation that has been made public since the first infection was reported in early March.
Other key findings in Pillay’s presentation include:
- In the worst case scenario, Gauteng would see more than 1.5 million Covid-19 infections at the end of winter, followed by KwaZulu-Natal with one million;
- The country has less than half the number of fans needed to treat maximum infection. Public and private hospitals currently have a total of 3,216 ventilators, compared to the 7,000 we need, and
- Currently, the country has 4,909 critical care hospital beds available, but the need for beds in intensive care units could exceed 14,700 at the highest level of infection.
Only “critically ill Covid-19 patients” will be treated in hospitals, while “mild to moderate infection patients” will be housed in field hospitals where basic medical care will be provided.
The government’s “worst-case preparedness” plan was informed by an investigation by the UCT Africa Modeling and Simulation Center. According to this scenario, if the blockade were suspended this Thursday after three weeks, the peak would have affected the country around August 18.
Pillay told parliamentarians during a digital committee meeting that the health department is seeing a different trajectory in the infection rate compared to countries like South Korea, Britain, the United States, and Spain.
According to Pillay’s presentation, based on statistics prepared by Professor Tulio de Oliveira of the KwaZulu-Natal Research Sequence and Innovation Platform (KRISP), the curve gradient is flatter than some countries that have been seriously affected.
The presentation, which also covers the state of preparedness of the public and private sectors, the tracking and tracing strategy, as well as details on critical points across the country, was delivered to MPs the day after President Cyril Ramaphosa announced an extension of the blockade on Wednesday. until the end of April.
Although Ramaphosa said there is “sufficient evidence” to show that the closure is working, but that it is too early to do a “definitive analysis of disease progression,” it did not elaborate on what data sets, epidemiological models or projections the government used to use. base your decision on expanding the block.
The National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS), which tests on behalf of the government, is known to be close to reaching its goal of 36,000 tests per day.
The president consulted widely before announcing his decision, including with opposition leaders, provincial prime ministers, and business and worker representatives, but has not released the exact statistics or projections that informed the decision to extend the blockade from three to five weeks. They are.
‘Terrifying’ projections
The presidency on Friday and Saturday did not respond to questions for comment.
A detailed set of questions was sent Friday to presidential spokesman Khusela Diko to ask what metrics the national command council, which coordinates the government’s response to the coronavirus, used to determine that the blockade should be extended. She did not return a call or reply to a message on Saturday.
John Steenhuisen, the DA leader and opposition leader in the National Assembly, says the lack of data on the spread of the virus is troubling.
“There is a complete absence of empirical data or details on what metrics the government will use to measure whether the blockade is successful or not. They are not playing open cards with the public.”
A senior government official familiar with the decision-making process said Saturday afternoon that Ramaphosa is briefed “by the best brains in the country” before making decisions and that extending the blockade was based on scientific evidence presented to him.
The projections that influenced Ramaphosa are “terrifying,” the official said, adding that the government did not want to create panic.
Professor Cheryl Cohen, one of the leading epidemiologists at the National Institute of Communicable Diseases (NICD), told News24 that she expects the projections given to the government to be published soon.
Martin Kingston, CEO of Rothschild & Co in South Africa, who is coordinating the response to Covid-19 by all trade formations through Business for South Africa, told News24 that he is “satisfied” that the decision to extend the blockade it was based on “the best scientific evidence available at the time”.
“We are in constant dynamic contact with the government, from the health minister to the National Treasury, the labor department and the department of commerce and industry. I am absolutely satisfied that the decision was made with the best scientific evidence available in that moment”.
“But we all know, and the government recognizes it, that the evidence is inadequate and needs to be expanded,” he said.
The presentation made to parliamentarians gives an idea of the state of preparedness of the health system:
- According to the latest available information, the country has less than half the number of fans required to treat the maximum infection. The public health system currently has 1,111 ventilators operating, with 2,110 operating in the private health system for a total of 3,216 ventilators. According to projections, the health system would need 7,000 ventilators to treat the virus, a shortage of 3,784.
- Currently there are only 3,318 critical care beds available, of which 2,140 are in private hospitals; There are 2,722 high-care beds in the country, of which only 1,082 are in the public sector; There are a total of 119,416 hospital beds available throughout South Africa.
- During maximum infection in an optimistic setting, and with forced closure, the maximum need for beds in intensive care units could exceed 14,700 beds at the highest level and 4,100 at the lowest level.
Siviwe Gwarube, the prosecutor’s health spokesperson, says he is concerned that although the presentation was more detailed than anything previously seen, there is still a lack of data available.
“We are trying to access the data, but what we have now is totally inadequate.”
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