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A woman passes a military armored vehicle in Khayelitsha, Cape Town, during the 21-day national shutdown to try to stop the spread of the coronavirus that causes Covid-19 disease. Health workers and the police have had the difficult task of educating and enforcing social distancing in Khayelitsha. The South African government is applying a total block of 21 days. (Photo: EPA-EFE / Nic Bothma)
By implementing a strict blockade, South Africa has been able to dramatically reduce the spread of Covid-19. But the data is likely to change as the government expands its tests to the broader community where tuberculosis and HIV are rife.
As the Covid-19 pandemic continues to escalate worldwide, countries seeking to flatten the curve have chosen to implement blockades nationwide in an effort to stem the spread of the virus. South Africa has been no exception and the results of the blockade so far illustrate a positive correlation between the blockade and reduced spread of the virus. This is shown in Figure 1 below, which shows that with the blockade in place, South Africa has managed to reduce the average daily increase in Covid-19 cases from 23.2% before the blockade to 7% during the blockade.
Figure 2 provides a clearer picture of the impact the South African blockade has had on the spread of the virus. It shows that since the blockade was implemented, South Africa has reported fewer Covid-19 cases per day. This is shown by the variations in the spread of the virus before and during the crash, and the latter visually illustrates a decrease in the spread of the virus.
However, these variations are likely to increase in the coming days, as 80% of confirmed cases so far have been from the private health sector, which is better equipped to perform tests, as illustrated in Figure 3. This suggests that most of the tests have been carried out on middle-class people who can afford private laboratory tests, excluding about 84% of disadvantaged public health care patients without medical care.
In response to this, the government has deployed 67 mobile units and driving test centers to bridge the gap between public and private health tests. These measures are projected to allow the country to screen some 30,000 people per day and provide a clear picture of the “real” spread of the virus.
Although the blockade has apparently lowered the infection rate in South Africa, its largest population and healthcare system remain at high risk. South Africa continues to be heavily burdened with tuberculosis (TB), with 68,000 people dying of the disease in 2018 alone. This infection rate is among the worst in the world. This will undoubtedly complicate the way the health system should try to deal with Covid-19.
TB patients, especially those who have not been diagnosed or are receiving early treatment for the disease, may be at high risk of contracting. more severe responses to Covid-19 if they become infected.
What’s worse is that the symptoms commonly associated with TB (cough, fever, shortness of breath) overlap with Covid-19, which could make it harder for health workers to distinguish between the two. Along with TB risk are those 7.7 million currently infected with HIV in South Africa, some of whom are coinfected with HIV and TB.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the United States, there are a number of underlying conditions They have been identified in individuals who have experienced more severe cases of Covid-19. Some of these conditions include asthma, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, severe obesity, and immunocompromised individuals due to smoking, cancer treatment, or poorly controlled HIV / AIDS treatment. Data remains limited on who may be most at risk at this stage of the pandemic, but clinical experts and data from the most severely identified populations identified the groups mentioned above.
The figure above indicates what percentage of Africans between the ages of 30 and 70 died in 2016 from cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, diabetes, or chronic respiratory disease (CKD). This compares to the number of Covid-19 cases as of April 7, 2020. South Africans have the highest risk of dying from these diseases compared to the rest of the continent.
Diet and lifestyle play an important role in the appearance of these diseases and According to the WHOPeople with underlying conditions like these are more likely to experience the more serious consequences of Covid-19. TB patients, especially those who have not been diagnosed or are being treated early for the disease, may be at high risk for more severe responses to Covid-19 if they become infected. DM
Marcus Hollington is Research Director at Focal Africa Research. Monique Bennett is a data scientist at Good Governance Africa.
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