[ad_1]
President Cyril Ramaphosa will make “serious decisions” about the blockade after considering all options based on scientific advice and models, as well as the possible economic repercussions of the closure nationwide.
Jackson Mthembu, the minister of the presidency, told News24 that Ramaphosa had not yet made a decision on whether the current blockade would be extended or whether a second blockade was being considered.
No proposals have been submitted to the National Command Council, which was the government body chaired by Ramaphosa, charged with managing South Africa’s response to the coronavirus, he said.
Three health experts say any premature suspension of the blockade will lead to an increase in the rate of infections, which have apparently begun to decrease.
READ | Numbers continue to grow as Mkhize warns of upcoming storm
However, economists warn that a prolonged blockade can cause irreparable damage to the economy, and Finance Minister Tito Mboweni will host a press conference on Thursday to address recent economic developments, which include another downgrade of the ratings.
Infections in the country now stands at 1,845.
Covid19 quick facts
– Number of confirmed infections: 1,845
– Number of tests: 63 776
– Number of recoveries: 45
– Number of confirmed deaths: 18
According to Mthembu, the president would seek to consult with various sectors and stakeholders before making a decision as he did before announcing the shutdown nearly three weeks ago.
“First, we must do a proper assessment if we have achieved all of our goals, which was to a greater extent to flatten the infection curve and ensure that it does not peak. What we will have to review is whether we have achieved that,” he said, and added that the National Institute of Communicable Diseases (NICD) and the Department of Health led this evaluation.
“The question of the [lockdown] the extension has not yet emerged. If it does come, serious decisions will have to be made. The National Command Council discusses all recommendations presented to it, and there must be scientific evidence to support any recommendation from the national joint intelligence and operational structure, “Mthembu said.
Ramaphosa will consult again
Various stakeholders, both inside and outside the government, are currently preparing models that attempt to predict the infection rate, as well as determine if the current blockade has been successful. These models, including those developed outside the government, will be presented to the National Command Center.
The economic implications of the blockade, as well as a possible second blockade, are being debated at the highest levels of the state, with officials and ministers looking for ways to boost the economy as soon as possible.
The SA Reserve Bank expects GDP to contract by 2 to 4% after closing.
A senior academic, who is part of one of several groups working on modeling and projecting the Covid-19 outbreak, said the rate of new infections had now reached a linear trajectory, apparently showing that the blockade was working.
He did not wish to be subpoenaed as he is not authorized to speak to the media.
ALSO READ | Mkhize: Health workers are our main soldiers in the fight against the coronavirus, they have to be safe.
Compared to the rate in mid-March when the increase in infection rates was “exponential”, infection rates have dropped significantly.
But this was a snapshot in time and did not take into account the lifting of the blockade or certain conditions, he said. If the blockade were lifted, the infection rate would increase dramatically again.
Another epidemiologist, who is also involved in efforts to provide information to the government and is not authorized to speak to the media, said the maximum infection rate would only be reached in a few months, and emphasized that the testing efforts, described as currently inadequate, needs to be significantly increased.
Limit transmissions
Dr. Kerrin Begg, a public health specialist at Stellenbosch University, said that from a public health point of view, the best way to limit community broadcasts was to limit movement dramatically.
The flattened peak of infections now seen is mainly based on imported cases, he said.
“It is likely that our great curve of the epidemic is just beginning now. Therefore, returning to a fully operational society has a significant risk that, by exposing people to each other, cases could actually increase,” Begg added.
Another concern was that experts realized that the asymptomatic spread of the disease had been greater than initially thought: the blockade helped minimize this, he said.
Begg added that there were other ways to minimize meeting outside of a total blockade, including delaying the opening of schools and universities, limiting the number of people allowed to meet to less than 100, and continuing to encourage hand washing and other hygiene. practices.
The government could also consider other options related to densely populated areas, such as restricting movement not only to the home, but to a smaller area or block, which would still limit the spread of the disease.
“We know from other pandemics that any movement restriction helps … while it is difficult, restricting movement is the most effective way to limit the spread of the disease.”
[ad_2]
