Who could replace Kim Jong Un if North Korea faces succession?



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By Sangmi Cha Time of published article11h ago

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North Korea has never announced who would follow leader Kim Jong Un in case he is disabled, and with no known details about his young children, analysts say his sister and loyalists could form a regency until a successor is old enough. to take over.

South Korean and Chinese officials have publicly doubted reports that Kim was seriously ill after a cardiovascular procedure, after his absence from a key state anniversary event on April 15 triggered speculation about his health.

But media reports raised questions about who is in place to take over if Kim, who is believed to be around 36 years old, a third-generation hereditary leader, fell seriously ill or died. He became a leader when his father Kim Jong Il died in 2011 of a heart attack.

Every change at the top in North Korea has raised the possibility of a leadership vacuum or collapse of the Kim dynasty, which has ruled the country since its founding in 1948.

So far, each of the three Kim to rule North Korea has defied expectations, holding fast to power. But under Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s arsenal of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles has grown substantially, raising concerns about who would control them.

The following are key figures in North Korea’s leadership circle and what role they can play in any transition.

KIM YO JONG

Kim’s younger sister has been the most visible presence around the leader in the past two years, formally serving as deputy chairman of the powerful Central Committee of the ruling Workers’ Party, but not officially as her brother’s chief of staff.

Kim Yo Jong was named an alternate member of the powerful Political Bureau of the Workers’ Party Central Committee this month, continuing her rise through the leadership hierarchy.

The leader’s sister, who is believed to be 31, has firm control of the party’s key functions, establishing herself as the main source of power behind collective leadership.

“Kim Yo Jong will for now be the main power base with control of the organization and guidance department, the judiciary and public security,” said Cho Han-bum of the Korea Institute for National Unification, a group of experts financed by the government. In Seoul.

ELDERLY PARTY

Choe Ryong Hae became the nominal head of state of North Korea last year as chairman of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly.

This culminated decades of service with the ruling Kim family party, following his role as the influential army political chief under the young leader.

Choe and Pak Pong Ju, a member of the politburo and former state prime minister who oversaw the North’s push to introduce more free-market functions to revive its economy, are likely the front men who lead a collective leadership, analysts say.

Kim Yong Chol, party vice president and former non-Kim dynasty senior nuclear envoy, and Foreign Minister Ri Son Gwon could be tasked with handling diplomatic affairs, including stalled denuclearization talks with the United States, as They played a key role at the Kim Jong Un summits with the President of the United States, Donald Trump.

STRANGULATED BROTHERS, AUNT

Kim Jong Chol is the leader’s older brother, but he has not been part of the country’s leadership, but rather leads a quiet life playing music, according to Thae Yong Ho, a former North Korean deputy ambassador to London, who defected to the south.

He is believed to be disinterested in public life and unlikely to emerge as a major presence, although some analysts say he maintains ties to his siblings and could play a more public role in a contingency.

Kim Kyong Hui was once a powerful figure in the leadership circle when her brother Kim Jong Il ruled the country. But she has not been seen since her husband, Jang Song Thaek, once considered the second most powerful man in the country, was executed in 2013 by Kim Jong Un. She has been ill for a long time, but she appeared briefly earlier this year at a gala alongside her nephew.

FOURTH GENERATION

Kim Jong Un is believed to have three children with Ri Sol Ju, the youngest born in 2017, according to the Southern National Intelligence Service.

The oldest is a 10-year-old son, which means that any of the three would need the help of their relatives or political guardians to become a hereditary leader of the fourth generation.

Kim Jong Il had been prepared for 20 years to lead the country, while Kim Jong Un had little more than a year to prepare, due to the sudden death of his father from a heart attack.

“Kim Yo Jong is unlikely to take command, but he could help build a provisional regime as a power broker until the children grow up, and Kim Jong Chol could return to help for a while,” said Go Myong-hyun, a researcher. . at the Asian Institute for Political Studies in Seoul.

Reuters



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