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The NBA did not take Obi Toppin seriously last season, letting him drop from a list of nearly 70 prospects for the 2019 scouting combination. This year he will receive an invitation to the green room of the concept, whether it is now live in Brooklyn, New York, or virtual.
Toppin has the attention of lottery teams now after transforming into a 20-point-per-game score, National Player of the Year and better shooter to bolster his projected NBA fit.
But some scouts still weigh how high it is worth to make up Toppin, with their questions mostly related to his defense and how it may affect his value.
How should Toppin’s dubious defense affect his judgment and value?
Numerous teams will be sold on Toppin’s score translation, given his pro tool (6’9 “, 220 lbs), explosiveness around the court (76.7 percent at edge), effective post-game (1.02 PPP, 87th percentile), untapped face-up potential (1.33 PPP spot-ups, 98th percentile), jump shot development (32 3PTM, 39 percent) and efficient production (32.5 player efficiency rating).
But what if he is a defensive liability? How much would it compensate for what he can achieve offensively?
Toppin showed limited potential in rim protection. Despite his size and athleticism, opponents shot 57.6 percent around the course when defending. His 4.1 block percentage was terribly low, as he often played center. The instincts, reaction time and difficulty do not appear on tape.
Toppin figures to start his pro career as a 4, despite his cravings that included running around the perimeter.
Tony Tribble / Associated Press
He does not appear graceful and waits away from the court, whether he isolates, shuts out or is asked to help. His footwork and general movements are clunky. Shooters shot 40.4 percent over him from the catch. He scored defensive spot-ups in the 26th percentile, and he did not stop pick-and-rolls (opponents converted 17-of-22 times).
Even its 14.5 rebounding percentage is worrying. How could a big man be so bouncy when he grabbed just 7.5 boards in 31.6 minutes per game?
Teams that consider Toppin may have to accept that they are not getting a plus defender or intimidator. And that means you have to think about whether they have the right supporting cast to mask his weaknesses.
How much should teams factor into Toppin’s defensive fit when considering him?
What if a wrestling defensive team considers Toppin the best available player when it’s on the clock?
Should teams just worry about talent in the concept and later add the right support? Toppin was able to give teams 20-plus points efficiently in a game. A scorer like that can be harder to find than defensive players who can fill in around him.
Ideally, the team that Toppin sets up can close himself between a rim protector and defensive wing. Or, it could use him on the 5 behind a strong team defense and shooters, as in Golden State.
Keith Srakocic / Associated Press
How legitimate is Toppin’s shooting improvement?
Freshman flashes of shots (11-of-21 3PT) provided optimism. This past season, Toppin took another step forward, hitting 32 tries in 31 games on a 39.0 percent clip.
The lack of volume still makes it very difficult to buy in full. He made three right-handed jumpers all year long that were no tears, hit one pull-up and made no shots from a screen. His percentage of 70.2 free throws was fine, but not convincing.
Toppin showed no apparent confidence in his shot. He hesitated as if giving open glance, and some of his misses were gone. He strives for it. His shot consists mostly of work in upper body.
But the slow improvement could be worth betting on to continue. On the other hand, he will end his NBA rookie season at age 23 (March 2021).
How worried is Toppin’s age?
Since 2007, the list of lottery picks that are 22 before the draft includes: Cameron Johnson, Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield, Taurean Prince, Denzel Valentine, Frank Kaminsky, Doug McDermott, Kelly Olynyk, Jimmer Fredette, Wesley Johnson, Ekpe Udoh, Hasheem Thabeet, Brandon Rush, Joakim Noah, Acie Law and Al Thornton.
History suggests that teams at 22 did not raise a star, although some have slipped through the cracks (in the second round) and have continued with solid pros like Malcolm Brogdon or Devonte ‘Graham. Toppin turned 22 in March, asking questions about his dominance of NCAA and NBA upside. He was the same age as many seniors in his breakout season. And how much room does he have left to improve his shooting, scoring skills and defensive IQ / coverage?
Teams have to ask how close Toppin is already to his ceiling, and then decide based on that answer where he ranks in a tier that usually includes 18- to 20-year-olds with more time / room to develop.
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Toppin in the concept
Between the ambiguity of this concept and changing advice, Toppin could go as high as no. 2 or later after the second half of the lottery.
In discussions with the best player, Toppin will compete for looks with mostly younger ball handlers and wings – LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards, Deni Avdija, Killian Hayes and more. And in today’s league, it is possible that uncertain general managers will be rewarded guards over a size that wrestles defensively.
But there are also lottery teams that could use a power forward, whether to plug in directly or to develop long-term, such as the Golden State Warriors, Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs or Detroit Pistons.
Toppin versus James Wiseman should spark an interesting debate when discussing pigs. Wiseman, who is 7’1 “, 240 pounds with a 7’6” wing span, has the superior physical profile and turned 19 on March 31st. But while Toppin Dayton led to a 29-2 record, Wiseman trained after leaving Memphis for just three games this season, and it’s pretty clear he can not currently match Toppin’s scoring versatility, passing or shooting .
Wiseman’s size and length are better suited for edge protection, but like Toppin, there are questions about his defensive influence.
Compared to USC’s Onyeka Okongwu, the other projected lottery major, Toppin is the more attractive attacking player. Okongwu is stronger, but he is not as comfortable as threatening outside the paint.
Okongwu, however, blocked 2.7 shots per game, and he emerges as a center anchoring a defense, unlike Toppin. Certain teams may prefer his defensive presence / potential and opportunities to improve his attack from the outside.
It seems like a safe bet to project a productive scorer into Toppin, who will shoot a high percentage of the floor. Offensively, it’s not crazy to think he’s throwing up numbers similar to the Atlanta Hawks’ John Collins. But will they be enough to compensate for his defensive problems, to what extent can he make them disappear, and is he absolutely on course to evolve from a power player to an inside-out stretch great?
Statistics by Synergy Sports, Sports-Reference.com
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