The study, by a group of international researchers and published in the journal Science on Thursday, found that even in the “best case scenario” where the amount of plastic pollution was reduced by 80% by 2040, there would still be massive accumulation – accumulated plastic up.
“The most important thing about our work is that if we do nothing, the problem of plastic pollution will become unmanageable. Doing nothing is not an option,” said Dr. Winnie Lau, study co-author and senior manager of the Pew’s Preventing Campaign. Ocean Plastics.
Lau called his findings “bad news, good news” because while the plastic pollution problem will get worse, we have all the knowledge, technology, and tools to make a dent.
The team found that seriously increased global efforts could reduce plastic pollution by 40% from 2016 levels, or 78% relative to a “business as always” model by 2040.
Rapid growth in plastic production, spurred by an increase in single-use plastics and a culture of “waste” has exacerbated the problem, according to the report. Meanwhile, waste management systems in countries around the world do not have the ability to safely dispose or recycle plastic waste.
Dr. James Palardy, co-author of the report and Director of the Pew Conservation Science Program, said the real cost of plastic pollution for human health and the environment, and doing nothing to reduce it, is in Much unknown, but waiting to find out how it affects us is not the answer.
“Do we really want to be guinea pigs for a global experiment?” he said.
To avoid a build-up of plastic greater than the estimated 710 million metric tons (782 US tons) by 2040, the team said coordinated global action is needed. That means reducing plastic consumption, increasing plastic reuse rates, improving waste collection and recycling, and expanding safe disposal systems.
And they are all necessary to do their part.
“This is not a problem for the developing world, it is a problem that everyone must solve,” said Palardy.
The team set out to find solutions to resolve plastic pollution. They created a model that mapped the entire global plastic system, from production to waste, and developed five scenarios to estimate reductions in plastic pollution between 2016 and 2040.
They discovered that there is no silver bullet solution to reduce global plastic pollution.
Instead, a change is needed across the entire supply chain, they said, from manufacturing plastics to pre-consumption (known as upstream) and after-use (recycling and reuse) to stop the spread of plastic pollution in environment.
“There is a role for everyone and for all sectors. We can only solve this problem if everyone does what they have to do,” Lau said.
Palardy said his research showed that implementing the best case scenario, where 80% of plastic pollution is reduced by 2040, does not entail large costs.
“It really saved governments money to implement this,” he said. The real challenge, he said, would be “how do we show the world that this is a more appropriate solution, it is better for the environment, it is better for taxpayers, it is better for practically everything.”
A key finding that the study identified is that poor waste management was not necessarily a problem of having recycling capacity, landfill space, or incinerators, but the neck of the bottle came from the collection gap.
“There are billions of people without collection services right now. When certain groups say we can recycle our output, you cannot recycle something you have not collected. You cannot dispose of something you have not collected,” Lau said.
Highlighting how vital they are to this sector, the authors said it will hopefully lead them to the part of the economy where their contribution is recognized.
“You go into a bathroom and the tub is overflowing, do you grab a mop or turn off the tap?” he said. “The beach cleanups are filling up and mopping the floor while the tap is still running. As good as it is, you should turn off the fountain.”
One of the biggest challenges in changing our plastic habits is helping people connect the dots between the plastics they consume and the pollution on our beaches and seas. Plastic takes years, sometimes hundreds of years, to decompose.
Going to schools to raise awareness, Stokes said he uses the example of 16th century playwright William Shakespeare and said that “if I had had a mug with a straw on 7/11 at the time, the plastic would still be here now.
“And that is pretty scary,” he said.
Because plastic is so cheap, there is a need to make economically viable alternatives to plastics for people to start taking them seriously.
“I think it’s the culmination that we do have the technology, we just need the willpower to want to do it,” Stokes said.
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