A study suggests that more than half of the residents of the Mumbai slums in India may have been infected with Covid-19


The study released Tuesday raises questions about the level of evidence in India, which has the third-highest number of confirmed cases in the world after the United States and Brazil.

On Wednesday, India reported that it had crossed 1.5 million reported coronavirus cases after more than half a million infections were reported in just 12 days. It took almost six months for India to reach its first 1 million confirmed cases.

Mumbai, the financial capital of India with a population of more than 12 million, has confirmed more than 110,000 cases, including at least 6,180 deaths, according to official statistics. The city is located in Maharashtra, the most affected state in India with more than 377,000 confirmed cases and at least 14,000 deaths.

The study, a collaboration between local authorities and medical institutions, found that 57% of samples collected from slum residents tested positive for antibodies to coronavirus, while only 16% of those living outside of slums tested positive, according to a press release Tuesday. .

The researchers used antibody tests, which are used to assess whether a person had a coronavirus in the past, to analyze more than 6,900 random samples collected from participants living in Mumbai in the first half of July.

Antibody tests, often called serological tests, look for evidence of an immune response to infection. In theory, that should show that the person had coronaviruses in the past and has since recovered, but the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in May that antibodies in some people can be detected within the first week of Covid-19 startup.
Health workers examine people for Covid-19 symptoms in a residential building in Dharavi, one of Asia's largest slums, in Mumbai, India on Friday July 17, 2020.

Coronavirus in slums

The researchers said that the high prevalence of coronaviruses in slum areas could be due to population density and common facilities, while the lower prevalence outside slums could be due to better social distancing and hygiene practices.

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But the authors noted that a high proportion of the cases were likely asymptomatic and said there was a low death rate among those infected, perhaps as low as 0.05%.

“This could be attributed to effective containment efforts and active measures to isolate symptomatic cases by (the Mumbai city government),” the researchers said in their report.

One reason why a relatively high proportion of residents appeared to have been infected despite the closure measures could be that people outside the slums relied on those living in slums for services such as gardening, cleaning and management, he said. Utture Shankar, President of Maharashtra. Medical Council, which is advising the government on its Covid-19 efforts.

Although the samples were only taken from three rooms, other parts of the city are likely to see similar results when tests are completed in those areas, Shankar said.

India has a relatively low Covid-19 death rate per capita compared to other affected countries, with just 2.47 deaths per 100,000, compared to 45.24 in the US and 68.95 in the UK, according to University data. Johns Hopkins. Experts have pointed to India’s relatively young population as a possible explanation for the lower death rate, as young people are less likely to die from coronavirus.

The potential impact of the coronavirus on the slum areas of India has been a concern since the pandemic began, and doctors warned that an outbreak would be unmanageable in places where residents live cheek-by-cheek in small houses without running water and share the bathrooms with several other families.

A health care worker wearing checks a resident's temperature during a medical check-up in a poor neighborhood in Mumbai, India on July 20, 2020.

The Indian authorities took steps to limit the spread of the coronavirus in marginal areas. For example, Shankar said authorities took steps such as regularly cleaning toilets and handing out free food to slum residents in an effort to reduce the number of people eating out.

As of Monday, there were 627 slums in Mumbai that were active containment areas.

India’s containment efforts

Despite the increasing number of confirmed cases, India is expected to further ease coronavirus restrictions in the coming days, although details have yet to be announced.

Coronavirus study reveals that almost one in four people in the Indian capital may have contracted the virus

The Indian government has highlighted its successes, with Prime Minister Narendra Modia on Monday pointing to the country’s widespread evidence, high recovery rate and low death toll compared to other countries. According to government statistics, India has carried out more than 17 million coronavirus tests as of Wednesday.

The government has also noted the high recovery rate: According to government statistics, almost 1 million people have recovered from the coronavirus. In India, patients with mild and moderate symptoms are no longer considered active after 10 days of symptom onset if they meet certain conditions. A test is not required to confirm that they no longer have the virus. Severe cases can only be discharged after a negative coronavirus test.

However, Shankar of the Maharashtra Medical Council said Tuesday’s study shows that the evidence clearly had not captured all cases. Although India had done well to increase test capacity, it needed to increase it even further, he said.

Last week, antibody tests on a random sample of people in the Indian capital of New Delhi found that nearly one in four residents may have been infected with coronavirus.

Other cities around the world have conducted similar antibody studies in the past, with much lower results.

In May, Sweden said 7.3% of people in its capital Stockholm had developed the antibodies in late April, according to 1,118 blood tests done in a week.

In New York, a study sponsored by the New York State Department of Health found that 14% of adults in the state had Covid-19 at the end of March, 10% more than the official count.

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