Swedish health officials said Tuesday that at least 3,000 other deaths from the coronavirus are likely in the country, known for its softer controversial approach to curb the spread and the death toll much higher than its neighbors. The projection comes from one of three potential scenarios presented in a report by the country’s Public Health Agency on Tuesday.
In the worst case, where COVID-19 was expected to follow a traditional pandemic trajectory, more than 4,400 more virus-related deaths could follow.
That would almost double the 5,646 deaths, from 78,166 confirmed cases, that have been recorded since the start of the pandemic.
However, they said a more likely scenario would see clusters of new cases across the country that would then quickly disappear.
That is a scenario “that we have now seen in different parts of the world, and that appears to be something that COVID-19 is creating more than most other diseases,” state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said at a press conference.
In the report, the agency noted that this was a possible scenario where “infectivity increases rapidly because people, for example, socialize more frequently,” but then declines “when people become aware of the outbreak and follow recommendations on distancing. “
The additional death toll from this scenario was estimated at almost 3,250.
Despite the bleak projections, the Public Health Agency said there were positive signs of the slowdown in the epidemic.
“In Sweden, the positive trend with a fairly rapid decline in cases continues,” Tegnell said, noting that especially severe cases needing intensive care fell to a few per day.
In the milder scenario presented, in which the spread of the virus follows current trends, just over 1,100 additional deaths were expected.
Unlike most European nations, Sweden never imposed a blockade and made headlines for having one of the highest death tolls per capita in the world.
It has kept schools under 16 open and has not closed cafes, bars, restaurants and most businesses. The masks have been recommended only for healthcare personnel.
Swedish authorities have argued that the blockades only work temporarily and that drastic short-term measures are too ineffective to justify their impact.
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