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There have been widespread concerns about the honesty of the ‘calculated’ results
A-level degrees awarded in colleges in sixth form this year fell below the average of the last three years in England, new analysis suggests.
The Sixth Form Colleges Association said its research is evidence that students in larger institutions have failed through this year’s system.
Nearly 40% of A-level grades awarded on Thursday in England were lower than teachers’ predictions.
The government has defended the approach it uses to determine degrees.
Students who failed to sit exams this year due to the coronavirus pandemic had downgraded 280,000 A-level results.
Exam Regulator Ofqual has been criticized for the statistical model it uses to decide the degrees.
Many students are expected to make an appeal, although there was confusion about the appeal process after Ofqual withdrew its guidance for challenging results within hours of publishing it on Saturday.
New guidelines are still being drafted by Ofqual, the education department said Sunday night.
Hundreds of students held a demonstration in central London on Sunday to demand clarity on the appeal procedure.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been told by Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer that he must take “personal responsibility” and “fix” the situation.
The Sixth Form Colleges Association (SFCA) said it looked at 65,000 exam entries in 41 subjects from sixth-form colleges and found that grades were 20% lower than historical performance for comparable students in those colleges.
It said this was equal to “12,048 missing degrees” in those colleges alone.
For example, in biology, it has been found that 24% of sixth-grade college students in recent years have received a degree lower than comparable students.
The SFCA said its analysis of 41 subjects had not found one where the results were above the three-year average.
Ofqual states that its goal for A-level results this year was to ensure “national results are broadly comparable to previous years”.
The SFCA said its research showed that Ofqual had “failed” to meet that “fundamental objective” and that the model it had used “not only failed to produce broadly similar results, but in fact produced fewer results in each box.”
Bill Watkin, chief executive of the SFCA, said Ofqual “should immediately recalibrate and run the model to give all students an accurate grade”.
“If this still fails to produce results that are broadly similar to previous years, students’ grades should be provided by teachers (known as center grade levels),” he said.
Dr Mark Fenton, principal director of the Grammar School Heads Association, said the results were also unfair to some of her students.
He told the BBC that “a major injustice has been done” with “complete baffling” results for some students.
He said the “only fair outcome” would be available to return to the class advocated by teachers and for the limit of 5% extra university places in England to be lifted.
The cap on increasing student numbers for each university was introduced by ministers to prevent academically selective universities from recruiting heavily to compensate for a drop in international students.
“Natural justice must now probably trump the understandable desire to maintain national standards in this, the most exceptional of years,” Dr Fenton added.
Three of Oxford University’s colleges – Worcester, Wadham and, as of Sunday evening, St Edmund Hall – have confirmed that all places offered to UK students will be secured, despite their A-level results.
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After exams were canceled due to the coronavirus pandemic, degrees were awarded using a controversial modeling system, the main factors being the ranking of students and the previous exam results of schools and colleges.
Ahead of the GCSE results, which will be released on Thursday, former Conservative education secretary Lord Kenneth Baker urged the government to delay the publication of degrees until the situation around A-levels was resolved.
“If you’re in a hole, stop digging,” Lord Baker said.
The statistical model used by Ofqual faces two legal challenges, with students claiming they were unfairly assessed at the school they attend.
Before results were released, the Department of Education announced a “triple-lock,” meaning students could take the degree through Ofqual, appeal to a “valid mock result,” or sit for fall exams.
The government announced Friday that schools will not have to pay to appeal against exam grades.
In England, 36% of entries had grades lower than their teachers predicted and 3% dropped two degrees. A similar situation in Scotland saw a U-turn by the government, which agreed to accept teachers ’estimates of scores.
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