Matt Stamey / Associated Press
The arrival of the NBA draft lottery Thursday night has prompted teams to put their boards back together and dig for more intelligence.
Bleacher Report has been keeping an eye on the league’s draft talks all season, and now things are starting to heat up again after a brief dismissal.
Here’s some of the buzz we’ve heard about what scouts think when teams take their concept preparation a step further.
Above design may not go as expected
Rick Rycroft / Associated Press
The general faith all year round had LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards and James Wiseman as top-three overall favorites, with Obi Toppin, Deni Avdija, Onyeka Okongwu and Isaac Okoro mixed in a tier that either overlaps as follows. But based on the tasks of some scouts I’ve heard over the past few weeks, motile designs could look so sleek from the top.
I have heard that Avdija ranks higher than LaMelo. Wiseman graded as a late lottery pick. Jalen Smith on Okongwu. Okoro is compared to Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Patrick Williams mentioned as a sleeper to be the top prospect of the design. There are international scouts with Killian Hayes top five, and university scouts who “don’t see it.”
Opinions are all over the place. This year has all the ingredients for concept results that do not match the narratives that the media and fans believe throughout the season.
The last draft with these many ambiguities and changing views was in 2013, when Anthony Bennett first went and Giannis Antetokounmpo no. 15. Who goes where in 2020 will come down to the order and eye of the general manager at each pick. And every eye of GM could see something different until October.
Patrick Williams, Florida State, potential Top-10 Riser
Matt Stamey / Associated Press
Williams has quietly taken serious steam inside NBA front office. His name has appeared several times in the sleeper-of-the-draft discussion.
One executive admitted that he moved up in the top eight of his rankings, citing that Williams was the latest NCAA prospect of the draft with “off-the-charts upside.”
Another scout pushed the idea that if we look back over a few years, we will question how and why Williams was not a top choice more than a different perspective.
He generated no national attention, averaging 9.2 points and 4.0 rebounds. But for a powerful 6’8 “, 195-pound 19-year-old, scouts have been encouraged by his flashes of physical, athletic finishes, shot-catching touch of the catch and dribbling, pick-and-roll passing skills and defensive play .
Those particular blitzes create a unique potential trajectory as they become routine plays for Williams. And considering he only turned 19 on August 19, it looks like teams are ready to bet on his development.
Israel’s Deni Avdija solidifying Top-5 Status
Antonio Calanni / Associated Press
Avdija has been seen all season as a potential top-five pick, but now it’s starting to seem more like a certainty than a possibility.
The July rune that helps Maccabi Tel Aviv win Israel’s Winner’s League Championship may have helped bolster the case. Scouts sound very comfortable with Avdija, even if they are not sure if he has star potential.
His versatility on the small and power-forward spots also suits any lottery team. Unlike Ball as Wiseman, whose particular styles and limitations will force GMs to question whether they will work with their roster, teams will not have to worry about whether Avdija can fit.
Since playing after the shutdown has been restored, he has provided more sequences of grab-and-go transition offensive, driving and passing ball screens, and spot-up shooting. In EuroLeague game he proved himself comfortable playing the ball in a supporting role. In the Israeli BSL, he showed more confidence and ability as an initiator for the abuse of Maccabi.
Instead of looking at Avdija’s ceiling, we look at a case of teams appreciating a player’s high floor in a concept laden with uncertainty. Teams targeting him in the No. 6-10 range will likely have to trade.
Love and Hate with Georgia’s Anthony Edwards
John Amis / Associated Press
Every scout seems to have Edwards and project in the top three – yet no one seems to be sure he’s the right kind of player to build a foul.
I have heard “lowest basketball IQ for every possible No. 1 overall pick I can remember.” One executive called him a ‘top-three mystery’, which is an amusing oxymoron. Another scout wondered why Edwards could not win more games on a team that had decent talent.
With 6’5 “, 225-pound throws and explosive athletics, he averaged 19.1 points and 2.3-threes per game, and demonstrated a high level of skill in making and making shots. He also shot 40.2 percent from the field and 29.4 percent from three with 91 assists in 87 turnovers for a Georgia team that finished 13th out of 14 teams in the SEC.
The recognition of Edwards’ talent and low confidence in translating to winning has been fascinating. It also adds more speculation that top teams will look forward to trading.
Maryland’s Jalen Smith Generates Lottery Buzz
Nick Wass / Associated Press
Several scouts have graded Smith as a lottery pick.
There’s a belief that his full skill set was a bit masked at Maryland, and that he will surprise with more offensive versatility in the NBA.
However, his improved body and shooting hint at an easy fit and high floor. Teams want bigs flying in and out of the floor, and Smith just became the sixth NCAA player on record to average a three-point make, 10 rebounds and two blocks a game, per Sports Reference.
He also receives rave reviews for his professionalism and work ethic. He will be moved to our lottery projections for our next mock concept.
RJ Hampton Falling
Rick Rycroft / Associated Press
Teams did not sound as high on Hampton as they did earlier in the season, when many proposed a lottery pick despite his decision to play in the NBL over the NCAA. While his explosive for a 6’5 “guard always suggested upside, he did not show any signing skills in Australia for scouts to feel confident.
I started hearing from late to first early second round of teams at Hampton, who combined to shoot 3-of-19 in exposure games against the Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grlzzlies when the New Zealand Breakers visited the United States in October 2019.
All it takes is one of 30 teams to buy his athleticism and versatility while being patient with his shot and IQ. But he is certainly lost fans, and he now sounds vulnerable to slipping.
Smaller Takeaways
—I hear a lot of top-10 conversations before Tyrese Haliburton of Iowa State. He will likely be the first NCAA point guard and the second point guard to go to LaMelo Ball.
–Stanford’s Tyrell Terry has fans who continue to move him with their board and skeptics who have him in the second round. A source told me that he has grown to more than 6’3 “in sneakers, which can be a big deal for teams who doubt his size.
—There is a lot of love for it Saddiq Bey of Villanova. I feel like he could be one of the first players to be taken out of the top 10 in the late lottery. His mix of size, shots and high character have become great drawings.
–Vanderbilt’s Aaron Nesmith has been branded as the best shooter of the concept, which some think they will go into the late lottery. There are skeptics who are not so tall, and mentions the idea that he is too one-dimensional.
– Sometimes think Kira Lewis Jr. of Alabama goes top 20; others have him 25-35. Faith buys his improvement and speed, while doubters doubt his sense of the game.
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