One of the best things about betting on golf is that no two tournaments are the same. Last week, we saw one of the best players in the world beat a star-studded field at a grueling event in Muirfield Village. This week, we will be sweating a very different competition as some of the game’s heavyweights are taking the week off. That should leave the door open for our first true long shot winner during return to golf.
Betting on a tournament like the 3M Open requires a very different strategy compared to betting on an event like a WGC or a Major Championship. Lack of star power means the betting board will look weird and punters are probably better off handing out money on a few long shots rather than paying the chalk.
With that in mind, here are our favorite straight bets, sleeper picks, accessories, and matchups for the 2020 3M Open.
Absolute bets
Jason Sobel
Erik Van Rooyen +3500
Trust me: this will not be the last time this week that you will hear about the local EVR connection, as the South African went to college at the University of Minnesota, married a girl from Minnesota and will stay with his Minnesota in-laws . during the event.
“This is going to be special to me, because it’s kind of a homecoming,” he told Brian Stensaas of the Star Tribune. “It’s a song that I love, a song that I have so many good memories of playing with my old teammates.”
The world’s 43rd player has been a bit of an all-or-nothing on the PGA TOUR this year in his first full season on the US circuit. In seven starts this calendar year, he missed the cut four times, but he also has three finals of 22nd or better, including at last week’s Memorial. I like everything about him this week and I think he has what it takes to win this title.
[Bet Erik Van Rooyen at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
Josh Perry
Sam Burns +4500
It’s not much that really catches my eye from an absolute perspective this week, but Sam Burns has been playing well for the past month and finished seventh last year, so it’s at least interesting.
Burns may go unnoticed compared to some of the other young weapons on the PGA TOUR, but he has the talent to win. And with many of the stars gearing up for some bigger events on the horizon, this is a good opportunity for you to take advantage.
[Bet Sam Burns at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
Bryan Mears
Jhonattan Vegas +6600
The guy that intrigues me the most this week is Tommy Fleetwood, who hasn’t played since the close of COVID-19, and the last time we saw him was that he had a tough tournament. But it is perfectly configured for Twin Cities, which will really highlight the best ball drivers, both distance and precision. And Fleetwood is among the best in the world at that skill, though he will have to pay a heavy price even after his dismissal on 1/17.
Let’s take a closer look at another interesting topic in Jhonattan Vegas at 66/1 on DraftKings. Once again, Total Driving will be the stat I’m most inclined to this week, and Vegas enters this top-10 tournament this season in that regard. He is sixth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. This week may be free for everyone, given the messy field, but if Jhonny can play his usual game with his driver, he should be there.
[Bet Jhonattan Vegas at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
Collin Wilson
Bubba Watson +3500
As Matthew Wolff and Bryson DeChambeau showed in the inaugural year of this event, bombers should perform well at the 3M Open. That should bode well for Bubba, who is eighth this season in driving distance and came out of his recent drift by finishing 32nd at the Memorial.
Watson skipped last year’s 3M Open, but TPC Twin Cities is comparable to Innisbrook, Plantation, and TPC River Highlands, and considering he has two wins and six other top-10 finishes in those stadiums, I think that’s a good scream. this week.
[Bet Bubba Watson at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
Long shots
Jason Sobel
Sahith Theegala +30000
Oh Sahith, you had me at 300/1.
Remember when everyone became a gaga for Will Gordon a few weeks ago after his T-3 result in the Travelers Championship? Well here are some news for you: Theegala is a more advertised and decorated young player and will face a less competitive field this week.
The current winner of the Ben Hogan and Jack Nicklaus Awards, Theegala ranked third in the world as a fan. If you don’t think I can finish in the top five this week, or maybe even win, then you probably don’t think college boy Matthew Wolff won last year.
[Bet Sahith Theegala at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
Josh Perry
Derek Ernst +30000
It has been a while since Ernst has had an impact on the PGA TOUR, but he has posted three solid results on the Korn Ferry Tour in the past month.
Outside of the top five or six names, there’s not much that separates this field from a KFT playoff event, so I don’t think it’s crazy to expect its recent form to lead to another solid week in a heavy driver course, which has always been his forte
[Bet Derek Ernst at bet365. NJ only.]
Bryan Mears
Sepp Straka +8000
I really like calls from my colleagues here and I’m definitely interested in those guys, particularly in the top 20 and DFS markets. Seamus Power was actually the guy I was going to write to, but unfortunately I was slow in the draw behind Collin. I’ll mix it up and list a different guy who’s not that risky but still interesting beyond the big names.
Sepp Straka is one of the rare guys in this field who has distance to compete, but is also able to keep his balls on the street constantly for good second shots, which I think will be the outstanding skill here in Twin Cities. He had a tough weekend at the Memorial last week, but honestly, who doesn’t? Before that, he was in the top 15 two weeks in a row. Given the course, I think the 27-year-old is underrated at 80/1.
[Bet Sepp Straka at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
Collin Wilson
Seamus Power +30000
The Irishman from the eastern state of Tennessee has had a small power surge recently. Distance from the tee box must be key at the 3M Open and Power lives up to its name by ranking second in this field in recent driving distance just behind Ernst.
Power’s 12th place in the Rocket Mortgage Classic was thanks to a 70% accuracy rate outside the tee box and a 79% coding rate.
Ranking 50 in Shots Won: Putting, this is a long shot that shouldn’t come out of the contest on the green.
[Bet Seamus Power at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
Bet Prop
Jason Sobel
Harris English Top-20 Finish (+175)
I’ll let Collin speak to Kristoffer Ventura next, which I love this week too. And since Josh is taking the Lucas Glover top 20, I’ll go with the other player I’ve been linking to weekly, since English and Glover have been two of the strongest players in the game lately.
English has finished in the top 20 in five of his last six starts, all of which were against stronger fields than the ones we’ll see this week. The way the PGA TOUR is configured rewards players with highs and lows more than those that constantly appear, but that doesn’t mean we can’t reward ourselves by relying on these types of guys.
[Bet Harris English now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
Josh Perry
Lucas Glover Top-20 Finish (+125)
Glover has made the cut in all five events since the restart and has been hovering around the top 20 in most outings.
With the intensity of the field taking a dip this week, you should be able to take advantage of a course where you finished seventh last year.
[Bet Lucas Glover now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
Bryan Mears
Doc Redman Top-40 Finish (+100)
Doc missed the cut for the first time since firing last week at the Memorial, shooting a 76 both Thursday and Friday. However, looking at his data, he actually hit 72.2% of his greens, which was one of the strongest marks on the field. The problem was that it featured one of the worst performances you’ll ever see. Man, were those impossible Muirfield greens.
However, before that tour, he had been in incredible shape. The youngster doesn’t have Bryson’s level off the tee, but he’s long enough and, more importantly, he’s pretty consistent with that club. The guy is very talented and fits well into this course. I think we will see a good recovery campaign and we will not mind paying even money for a top 40.
[Bet Doc Redman now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
Collin Wilson
Kristoffer Ventura Top-20 Finish (+400)
The Oklahoma state product has a couple of Korn Ferry Tour victories to its credit and has impressed at some PGA TOUR events, including the Rocket Mortgage Classic where the T21 ended.
Ventura’s average distance on the 2019 Korn Ferry Tour was 313 yards, so he has enough cane to hang out at TPC Twin Cities.
Better yet, he has the best-adjusted score on recent Par 5 and Par 4 long term than anyone else in this field, according to FantasyLabs.
[Bet Kristoffer Ventura now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
Showdown bets
Jason Sobel
Matthew Wolff (-110) on Bubba Watson
The defending champion should feel good vibes on his return to the TPC Twin Cities, which runs into him regaining some form as he finished the T-22 last week and was runner-up two weeks earlier. However, this is both a Wolff play and a Bubba fade.
It’s true that I generally only like Bubba in three tournaments every year, and no, this is not one of them. With no top-30 finishes in his last five starts (and three MCs during that span), it’s hard to think that he’s going to change everything this week.
[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
Josh Perry
Paul Casey (+115) on Tommy Fleetwood
Casey is coming off a failed cut last week, but it was largely due to an 8 he took on a par 3 that still only left him one shot before hitting the weekend. He played the other 35 holes on 1 bass and seemed pretty solid the first two days.
Fleetwood hasn’t played competitively since the reboot, so we don’t know where his game is, so I’ll take the most number on Casey and hope Fleetwood doesn’t show up at this lower-level event completely marked on.
Odds through the WestBook SuperBook.
Bryan Mears
Jhonattan Vegas (-120) on Charley Hoffman
I wrote in my absolute section why I loved Las Vegas, but I’ll summarize it again here: I think for this course, TPC Twin Cities, solid driving, both accuracy and distance will be critical to fighting. And Vegas is a great example of that type of golfer.
Hoffman, however, is ranked 185th in Total Driving this season, and it’s not really a fluke; He finished 162nd in that statistic a season ago. He came from a good field trip on Workday two weeks ago, but he did most of his damage with his short set and irons.
Las Vegas will have a big advantage with the big stick this week, and I think that will make a big difference.
[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
Collin Wilson
Dustin Johnson (-129) on Brooks Koepka
A player must have a short-term memory to post money to DJ, who had two 80 rounds to lose the cut at The Memorial.
Despite his terrible performance last week, Johnson has yet to claim a victory at TPC River Highlands, a course similar in nature to TPC Twin Cities. DJ also has the top 10 results in comparable courses like Innisbrook and Plantation.
Brooks, who is still struggling with a knee injury, has not been exact out of the box in recent events. Koepka is ranked 144th in ball strokes this season and has fallen from 56th to 93rd in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in the past two weeks.
[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
