Major League Baseball is slated to begin its 2020 regular season on Thursday, July 23, nearly four months after it was originally scheduled. The delay can be mainly attributed to the global pandemic and the spread of COVID-19, but the long (and sometimes irritating) negotiations between the league and the union also contributed to the delay in the season.
A lot has changed, in baseball and in the world at large, since the Washington Nationals defeated the Houston Astros in the last significant baseball game. With that in mind, we wanted to see a preview of the season highlighting 10 important questions on the field facing the season.
Let’s do it then.
1. Will the ball be squeezed again?
You can be forgiven if you’ve forgotten about the juice ball controversy that plagued MLB last season, when almost all notable and trivial home run records fell at one point or another. Apparently, the catalyst was an altered ball that was resistant to resistance, or, in simple terms: it was carried further. (Research by Dr. Meredith Wills and Rob Arthur verified that the ball was different.)
It is unknown at this time what aerodynamic qualities this year’s ball will have. If he’s back in the mood, then, in concert with the short season, it could lead to outlandish, if entertaining, results: Maybe there’s a surprise home run champion, or maybe someone is hitting .400 for the first time since 1941. Chances aren’t. They are endless, as there is only so much damage a hitter can do in over 60 games that would affect the record books, but they are huge.
While it’s not great that the most fundamental aspect of the sport, the literal piece of equipment that bears the name of the game, is so prone to variability, it’s surely a compelling wild card.
2. How will the Astros fare after the hellaz winter?
The Astros lost Game 7 of the World Series at home last October, and that was a highlight compared to the excess controversy they have faced in the past nine months.
This is a franchise that first had to fire an assistant general manager after he taunted female journalists at club headquarters for employing the team of an alleged domestic abuser, then a couple of months later he had to fire its CEO and manager for his involvement in a cartel theft scandal that rocked the integrity of the sport. (That’s the cute version of those events, by the way; both were much uglier overall.) Along the way, the Astros lost their ace, one of their best relievers and their starting receiver in their main competition in the American League, the team that beat them in the World Series and a division enemy.
Can things get worse for the Astros? Well that depends on what happens this season.
If they do not meet expectations, further doubts will be raised about the legitimacy of their past glory. Plus, they’ll likely have to trade imminent free agent George Springer, or risk losing him this winter for a draft pick. Oh, and a disappointing campaign would also mean Dusty Baker won’t have a second season at the helm.
If the Astros do what they are expected to do: win the division, compete for the pennant, then they will probably join the concept of redemption. At the absolute minimum, a deep playoff career would allow the franchise to end the year on a better footing than it started.
3. Can nationals repeat?
One team has not repeated as World Series champions since the Yankees won three consecutive titles between 1998 and 2000. It is not clear if the Nationals have what it takes to change that.
The Nationals’ rotation, which was worked so hard in October, should benefit from the shorter season. This is good news considering that Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez are possibly more important to Washington now than last year.
That’s because the Nationals lost third baseman Anthony Rendon to free agency, and now they have a lineup that depends even more on aging role players.
Washington is expected to have three players who are no more than 25 years old on their opening roster: Juan Soto, Victor Robles and Carter Kieboom. Otherwise, the Nationals have five players who are under the age of 33, including at least three players who are expected to start most days, at Howie Kendrick, Eric Thames, and Yan Gomes or Kurt Suzuki.
In general, it is accepted that older players are more likely to experience a collapse in performance. That could be a problem for the Nationals, especially since their weak agricultural system limits their ability to make substantial improvements during the season, either through promotions or exchanges.
There’s no point dismissing the Nationals, not with that rotation, but it’s fair to say it’s easier to imagine a scenario where they lose the postseason than where they repeat as champions.
4. Can the Yankees stay healthy, keep on the upside?
The Yankees are widely regarded as a favorite to win the World Series, and for good reason. This is a club that won 103 games last season, and then added Gerrit Cole to the mix.
If there is an obvious threat to derail the Yankees’ October plans, it’s their health situation.
The Yankees won 103 games last season despite leading the majors on injury days, and they would rather not have to do the same trick this year. General manager Brian Cashman reviewed the strength and conditioning of the team’s staff during the winter, and while they saw no immediate results during the spring, in fact, they lost Luis Severino for the season and seemed likely to enter Opening Day. without Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton or James Paxton: The pandemic hiatus has given them another chance to recover.
The Yankees want to stay healthy for obvious reasons, but doing so is more important this year than during a typical season. After all, missing a month of action during a 60-game season is similar to missing half the schedule.
5. Can the Dodgers win 40 games or a title?
Such a question would have seemed absurd in February, but 40 wins in 60 games is proportional to 108 out of 162; The 2019 Dodgers, for reference, won 106 games. Dodgers President Andrew Friedman has added Mookie Betts, the game’s second-best player, to the list. So how good can these Dodgers be, and will they face any challenges in the West?
According to the projection systems, the answers are: very, and not really. FanGraphs has the Dodgers down for 36 wins, while Baseball Prospectus has them good for 38 wins. Regarding division leadership, the Dodgers are expected to have between four and nine sets of mattresses, depending on the reader’s choice system.
Of course, the most important question the Dodgers face is not whether they can dominate the season, whether they’ve been there, they have, but rather, whether they can win the World Series. They have not done so since 1988.
6. Is this the year for Mike Trout and the Angels?
The Angels, the other Los Angeles team, would settle for their first postseason appearance since 2014.
GM Billy Eppler spent the offseason adding veteran pieces to the roster. Third baseman Anthony Rendon was the big catch, but catcher Jason Castro and pitchers Dylan Bundy, Matt Andriese and Julio Tehran should drive the Angels’ career prevention unit. It also doesn’t hurt the Angels’ chances that they can promote a pair of better open-field prospects at Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh over the course of the summer.
Ultimately, the Angels’ competitive hopes depend on the viability and consistency of their pitching team. It sounds simple enough, but that has been the case for the Angels for years without much success. Perhaps things will be easier on a condensed schedule.
7. Can White Sox, Reds take the next step?
The White Sox and Red Sox were two of the most aggressive winter buyers. Chicago added Yasmani Grandal, Edwin Encarnación, Dallas Keuchel and Gio González, while Cincinnati signed with Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos, Wade Miley and Shogo Akiyama.
Will the big offseason pay off and result in a trip to the postseason? Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection system seems to think so.
PECOTA has the White Sox stationed third in the American League Central, about four games from the Twins. Still, PECOTA believes the White Sox have a 23.6 percent chance of playing in the postseason, that’s about the same as the Angels and the Athletics.
As for the Reds, they are the favorites to win the National League Central, according to PECOTA. Cincinnati is believed to have a slight advantage over the Cubs, Cardinals and Brewers. PECOTA gives the Reds a 54 percent chance to make the playoffs in any way.
Considering hijinx’s potential on a 60 game schedule, it should come as no surprise if at least one of the two makes it to October, and who knows, maybe they both will.
8. Will Lindor, Arenado, Bryant remain in the respective cities?
Much attention has been and will be paid to what the pandemic means for free agency this winter. The most pressing thing is what it means for the commercial market.
Cleveland shortstop Francisco Lindor, Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado and Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant were rumored to be on the block for the winter. Apparently all three could be bought this summer if their teams fall out of the question.
The question then is, will someone bite? Or will teams be more reluctant to cost, in terms of dollars and prospects, due to lost revenue and the short season? There’s no way to know the answers right now, but it’s something to think about as the August 31 deadline approaches.
9. What better prospects will reach the biggest?
A couple of weeks ago, we touched on why some league experts believe teams will be reluctant to participate in the manipulation of service time this season. Whether that is the case, a series of well-considered prospects should reach the majors before the end of the year.
Rays shortstop Wander Franco, our No. 1 prospect, might be among them, but here are the top five prospects (based on our preseason roster) that have a good chance to debut this season:
- Jo Adell, OF, Angels (No. 2 overall)
- Luis Robert, OF, White Sox (No. 3)
- MacKenzie Gore, LHP, Parents (No. 4)
- Gavin Lux, INF, Dodgers (No. 6)
- Casey Mize, RHP, Tigers (No. 7)
In other words, it should be a good time to be a fan of young talent.
10. Will any recruits debut this season?
In a typical season, the answer would be “not an opportunity.” This year is different, for the reasons we have described above. As a result, don’t be surprised if someone like Reid Detmers (Angels), Garrett Crochet (White Sox), or Burl Carraway (Cubs) makes his first professional appearance as part of a major league roster. (We covered those and a few other possibilities earlier this year.)
Whatever happens, it will be a strange and unforgettable season.
